Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20733c61fe752b0e8bd3f6812a84c31d6c4a04881c7d493eeee0e9cfa15ef6d8

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: NRGof Evil Geniuses, NRG
Resolved: May 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $55,981
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $62,553

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,981 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Valorant
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xba38…e406backed Evil Geniuses	20c	7,384$1,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,470.47	547	51.2%280 W · 267 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed NRG	80c	4,616$3,693 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$923.3	56	58.9%33 W · 23 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Evil Geniuses	20c	4,469$894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$893.75	339	42.2%143 W · 196 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked NRG	79c	2,500$1,981 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$518.49	331	53.5%177 W · 154 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Evil Geniuses	22c	2,058$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.8	390	42.6%166 W · 224 L	+19.3wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Evil Geniuses	21c	2,000$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-4.4wins	-0.21per pick	49cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Evil Geniuses	12c	1,896$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.43	253	36.4%92 W · 161 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Evil Geniuses	8c	1,870$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.59	98	44.9%44 W · 54 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Evil Geniuses	19c	1,298$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.85	256	60.9%156 W · 100 L	+22.5wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Evil Geniuses	21c	1,200$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.48	208	40.9%85 W · 123 L	-12.7wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3237…5658backed Evil Geniuses	20c	1,020$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.08	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed NRG	78c	1,006$790 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.39	621	56.4%350 W · 271 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Evil Geniuses	8c	1,004$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.32	533	55.3%295 W · 238 L	+24.0wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Evil Geniuses	8c	1,002$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.16	563	57.9%326 W · 237 L	+36.3wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Evil Geniuses	8c	806.76$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.54	655	59.4%389 W · 266 L	+50.5wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Evil Geniuses	18c	690$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.2	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Evil Geniuses	14c	616.64$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.52	1,490	46.6%695 W · 795 L	-16.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedcd…2507backed NRG	78c	510.39$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.39	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.17per pick	61cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed Evil Geniuses	15c	506.99$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.91	125	40.8%51 W · 74 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x074b…65f9backed Evil Geniuses	8c	500$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked NRG	80c	469$375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.8	37	70.3%26 W · 11 L	+4.3wins	+0.12per pick	59cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Evil Geniuses	8c	439.4$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.94	347	39.8%138 W · 209 L	-13.7wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Evil Geniuses	20c	407$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.4	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	-4.3wins	-0.12per pick	55cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Evil Geniuses	19c	380.13$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.83	351	42.5%149 W · 202 L	-14.6wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Evil Geniuses	11c	379.22$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.71	531	59.1%314 W · 217 L	+41.6wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Evil Geniuses	6c	367.81$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.87	415	37.1%154 W · 261 L	-26.8wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked NRG	80c	321$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.2	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Evil Geniuses	17c	320.58$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.75	1,376	47.1%648 W · 728 L	+10.6wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Evil Geniuses	15c	287.43$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.84	164	42.1%69 W · 95 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Evil Geniuses	8c	278.37$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.98	308	35.4%109 W · 199 L	-23.8wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4d1…3d4cbacked Evil Geniuses	9c	275.37$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdef2…98e0backed NRG	78c	267.61$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.61	28	50%14 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Evil Geniuses	5c	266$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.58	779	29.5%230 W · 549 L	-72.4wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-39%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Evil Geniuses	17c	265.02$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.34	50	38%19 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Evil Geniuses	6c	259.04$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	240	32.1%77 W · 163 L	-18.7wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc365…635cbacked NRG	78c	256.41$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.41	60	45%27 W · 33 L	-5.9wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Evil Geniuses	22c	229.98$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.6	162	41.4%67 W · 95 L	-11.3wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Evil Geniuses	22c	219.6$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.31	94	43.6%41 W · 53 L	-5.9wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked Evil Geniuses	14c	208.93$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	112	32.1%36 W · 76 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Evil Geniuses	20c	208$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.47	425	40.5%172 W · 253 L	-22.7wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Evil Geniuses	21c	200$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	867	47.5%412 W · 455 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed NRG	78c	200$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	253	47%119 W · 134 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Evil Geniuses	9c	197.53$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.58	269	32.3%87 W · 182 L	-25.7wins	-0.10per pick	42cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Evil Geniuses	23c	195.65$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	428	40%171 W · 257 L	-22.4wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde6b…7178backed Evil Geniuses	8c	183$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.64	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e8f…4374backed Evil Geniuses	23c	173.91$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Evil Geniuses	21c	166.66$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	75	30.7%23 W · 52 L	-9.0wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbc64…fc2bbacked NRG	78c	164.1$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.1	186	53.8%100 W · 86 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Evil Geniuses	18c	162.75$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.68	450	33.8%152 W · 298 L	-35.6wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5887…994ebacked Evil Geniuses	13c	160.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.17	93	46.2%43 W · 50 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed Evil Geniuses	7c	154.58$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	106	30.2%32 W · 74 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4da5…e32ebacked Evil Geniuses	21c	147.62$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	59	57.6%34 W · 25 L	+10.9wins	+0.18per pick	39cpaid	+54.6%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked NRG	77c	146.74$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.75	80	43.8%35 W · 45 L	-5.7wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Evil Geniuses	22c	144.45$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.78	63	38.1%24 W · 39 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f23…e2c8backed NRG	78c	138.66$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.27	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.16per pick	72cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked NRG	80c	131$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.2	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Evil Geniuses	15c	130.75$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.05	575	17.7%102 W · 473 L	-71.7wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9809…026dbacked NRG	79c	126.58$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.58	46	69.6%32 W · 14 L	+3.3wins	+0.07per pick	62cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Evil Geniuses	23c	120$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	601	54.2%326 W · 275 L	+24.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed NRG	80c	110$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Evil Geniuses	22c	109.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	544	39.9%217 W · 327 L	+12.7wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked Evil Geniuses	21c	93.23$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.58	87	36.8%32 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Evil Geniuses	15c	92$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	121	47.1%57 W · 64 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed NRG	80c	89$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.8	71	63.4%45 W · 26 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed NRG	80c	89$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.8	114	54.4%62 W · 52 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbced…5808backed NRG	80c	79$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.8	60	66.7%40 W · 20 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c20…42a1backed NRG	80c	75$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed NRG	80c	75$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	285	41.1%117 W · 168 L	-26.4wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6489…2ddfbacked NRG	80c	73.79$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.79	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+2.7wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bfb…a2d7backed NRG	77c	59.47$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.47	106	61.3%65 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	67cpaid	-9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed Evil Geniuses	21c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	252	45.2%114 W · 138 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Evil Geniuses	22c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	271	45%122 W · 149 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed NRG	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	26	69.2%18 W · 8 L	+3.5wins	+0.13per pick	56cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Evil Geniuses	23c	44.05$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc187…7ac1backed NRG	80c	36$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	64cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5101…4a4fbacked NRG	80c	26$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.2	68	58.8%40 W · 28 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…f93fbacked NRG	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	63cpaid	+17%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omegathis page
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5)NRG won
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs NRG - Map 1 WinnerNRG won
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs NRG - Map 2 WinnerNRG won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event