Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e3181905e89485e15592222bdbba61a63e1f26225ca58ebac5851e277d095ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NRGof NRG, Evil Geniuses
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Evil Geniuses | 48c | 2,200$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.18 | 208 | 40.9%85 W · 123 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Evil Geniuses | 49c | 1,597$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.44 | 521 | 55.5%289 W · 232 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…e454backed NRG | 52c | 1,305$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.58 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…b0c7backed NRG | 52c | 1,162$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.57 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Evil Geniuses | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x566b…ceb9backed NRG | 53c | 761.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Evil Geniuses | 5c | 720.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 101 | 59.4%60 W · 41 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8227…0bccbacked NRG | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Evil Geniuses | 48c | 491.4$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.29 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8d…9bb1backed NRG | 53c | 270$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Evil Geniuses | 5c | 270$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 407 | 31.7%129 W · 278 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…7367backed Evil Geniuses | 5c | 238.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked NRG | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 112 | 32.1%36 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Evil Geniuses | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Evil Geniuses | 51c | 190.2$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…ad65backed NRG | 55c | 173.83$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -26.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…6d74backed NRG | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 255 | 55.7%142 W · 113 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf82…91ccbacked NRG | 50c | 114$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed NRG | 52c | 113.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1afd…427ebacked NRG | 50c | 109.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Evil Geniuses | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked NRG | 53c | 105.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…bf81backed NRG | 55c | 96.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 279 | 56.6%158 W · 121 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…3d70backed NRG | 56c | 88.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…c211backed NRG | 55c | 77.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…279bbacked Evil Geniuses | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Evil Geniuses | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 235 | 48.5%114 W · 121 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed Evil Geniuses | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…9a00backed NRG | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Evil Geniuses | 47c | 47.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d8…e2e8backed NRG | 55c | 43.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ff…b4dabacked NRG | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed NRG | 51c | 26.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 322 | 61.5%198 W · 124 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed NRG | 50c | 23.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 391 | 66%258 W · 133 L | +24.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group OmegaNRG won
- Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs NRG - Map 1 WinnerNRG won
- Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs NRG - Map 2 WinnerNRG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.