Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x456a78b54b5ae25068b06a716536f7a2a00bf6f3fa85fede5149a0b4cc3ebdce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb920…1b19backed No | 43c | 597.07$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.91 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 557.43$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.11 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 39c | 546.27$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.22 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked No | 53c | 508.09$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.96 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed No | 76c | 482.48$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.52 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 50c | 371.01$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.84 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 47c | 316.01$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.68 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 51c | 307$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.81 | 292 | 36.3%106 W · 186 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…bf10backed Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 203$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 27c | 187.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 61c | 184.38$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 17c | 153.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 357 | 50.4%180 W · 177 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed Yes | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed No | 75c | 133.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…3c34backed No | 75c | 133.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed No | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 303 | 43.2%131 W · 172 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed No | 80c | 125.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e0…d1aebacked Yes | 24c | 119.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 53c | 103.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…9603backed No | 52c | 101.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 68c | 101$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedcd…2507backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 44c | 96.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 19c | 94.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 60.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 23c | 51.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5947…c7dcbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…4cc7backed Yes | 27c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…160cbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…70b1backed Yes | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabcf…17b7backed Yes | 65c | 18.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…8849backed No | 73c | 18.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 11?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 11?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 11?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 11?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 11?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.