Token Launches · resolved market
Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b46e03840683003db8b01b8957ed02f73aa876916244b7294c9bc3cb106a96d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 14c | 11,655$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,658.92 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 0c | 5,847$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf75…02d8backed No | 3c | 3,729$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…ffd4backed No | 9c | 3,400$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…12a5backed No | 3c | 3,220$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 5c | 3,161$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.63 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 11c | 3,102$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.01 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 5c | 2,616$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed No | 4c | 2,540$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 15c | 2,129$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.33 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 2,036$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…9ad5backed No | 10c | 1,949$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,678$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a1…d158backed No | 13c | 1,279$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,050$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b9…d5babacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…4abdbacked No | 16c | 1,000$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 961.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…be6cbacked No | 6c | 920.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed No | 33c | 913.57$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.21 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…a41abacked Yes | 68c | 871.88$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…2093backed No | 13c | 850$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 5c | 772.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f1…6395backed No | 4c | 763.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +295.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked No | 15c | 610.09$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84da…0a03backed No | 18c | 597.89$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked No | 35c | 578.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 553.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…dd70backed No | 14c | 520$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc32a…bf78backed Yes | 76c | 516.98$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…70a8backed No | 8c | 506.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…7089backed Yes | 75c | 502.45$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 67c | 496$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.37 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 65c | 466.86$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…b8f5backed No | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae7…9603backed No | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16c3…5373backed No | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…40d7backed No | 13c | 400$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed No | 13c | 360$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 7c | 310.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…9b3bbacked Yes | 77c | 309.53$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2e…8abfbacked No | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedcd…2507backed No | 17c | 298.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 17c | 296.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d1…939cbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x093f…07b4backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7633…1a22backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 15c | 199.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a88…1936backed No | 6c | 179.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +142%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 13c | 170.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1183…c3aabacked Yes | 71c | 160.87$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cd…af7abacked Yes | 78c | 155.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed Yes | 74c | 150.5$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…5144backed No | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed No | 31c | 139.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed No | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3a…fe9bbacked Yes | 78c | 108.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab1…d621backed Yes | 69c | 108$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 18c | 98.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…0c73backed No | 17c | 97.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 31c | 93.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 68c | 93.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…a005backed Yes | 72c | 91.96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…1f57backed No | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 14c | 84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 32c | 83.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 19c | 79.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -17.0wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked No | 24c | 55.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…889bbacked Yes | 71c | 54.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…50dbbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcba…04ddbacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…16b4backed Yes | 70c | 28.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…a017backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Fabric FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.