Token Launches · resolved market
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe978c8a9c7bc570c8419e31a518ad454440eec81c1947285ae0683571db61b80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $239,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $250,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 242 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9f9…c887backed Yes | 18c | 29,543$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 74c | 13,785$10,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,550.85 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 62c | 10,000$6,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63d8…766ebacked Yes | 30c | 7,901$2,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,358.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 26c | 4,849$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.75 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…9e26backed No | 75c | 3,916$2,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.41 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 24c | 3,912$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.21 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 70c | 3,800$2,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.99 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…e424backed No | 43c | 3,483$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,986.37 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked No | 54c | 3,255$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…e7a5backed Yes | 28c | 3,143$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c50…8100backed Yes | 25c | 3,051$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.81 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 66c | 2,822$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.72 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…8cbebacked Yes | 50c | 2,800$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6182…788ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,715$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d32…0fb9backed Yes | 60c | 2,500$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 56cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed Yes | 16c | 2,282$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.57 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed No | 67c | 2,089$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.67 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 9c | 1,982$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.17 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 17c | 1,968$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.08 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 73c | 1,854$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.14 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e9…fcc9backed No | 79c | 1,825$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 57c | 1,800$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…a307backed Yes | 25c | 1,759$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…35e6backed Yes | 20c | 1,700$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked No | 51c | 1,600$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 21c | 1,568$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.01 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed Yes | 51c | 1,527$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.06 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e7…64cfbacked Yes | 35c | 1,525$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…02b4backed No | 77c | 1,484$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.06 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…d285backed Yes | 28c | 1,452$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.04 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,421$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.15 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…5738backed Yes | 24c | 1,412$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 26c | 1,374$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.28 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…2aedbacked Yes | 21c | 1,369$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…7251backed Yes | 19c | 1,325$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.01 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae7…9603backed Yes | 15c | 1,316$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.35 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 22c | 1,245$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.68 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 80c | 1,242$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.69 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 78c | 1,208$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.94 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 1,180$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.3 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 73c | 1,176$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.43 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,070$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…2e4ebacked No | 78c | 1,051$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.2 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 72c | 1,032$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.42 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed Yes | 17c | 988.46$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.04 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 14c | 944.84$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.13 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes | 22c | 942.32$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.57 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…0129backed Yes | 20c | 926.58$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 882.04$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.69 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…6cc6backed No | 48c | 879.98$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.59 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 45c | 864.51$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.19 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x127b…b59bbacked Yes | 15c | 845.66$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes | 27c | 810.74$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.4 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…8cd8backed Yes | 27c | 804.03$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.59 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 70c | 800$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 775$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11da…91abbacked Yes | 25c | 747.82$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4df…461abacked Yes | 41c | 732.93$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 21c | 723.12$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.21 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…3044backed Yes | 37c | 675.68$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18f3…b4e9backed Yes | 23c | 655.89$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc23…9297backed Yes | 14c | 640.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…f8c4backed No | 78c | 637.49$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.49 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed No | 79c | 633$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.58 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x597e…cd70backed Yes | 35c | 608.74$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked Yes | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…4497backed No | 70c | 600$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…68b8backed Yes | 34c | 586.25$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.97 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked Yes | 16c | 567.59$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.49 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 29c | 537.02$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.35 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf297…011fbacked No | 78c | 511.52$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…fe62backed No | 74c | 501.68$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.78 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…da5bbacked Yes | 38c | 500$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa547…bf03backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…1b8cbacked No | 64c | 480$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd536…6659backed No | 43c | 460.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x660e…76ccbacked Yes | 18c | 452.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4592…a49cbacked Yes | 23c | 443.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 433.28$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed No | 67c | 429.63$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.65 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a5…0e31backed No | 65c | 425$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed No | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…5786backed No | 74c | 389.1$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.85 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc0…41e6backed Yes | 49c | 387.29$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3524…c7c8backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a97…2ffbbacked No | 75c | 379.99$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 74c | 378.38$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.38 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 12c | 335.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 28c | 323$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3f…c3dbbacked Yes | 58c | 317.8$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 38c | 313.21$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd771…489fbacked Yes | 24c | 312.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f3…80e4backed Yes | 20c | 311$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch?this page
- Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.