Token Launches · resolved market
Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39dd9186bee41053933369e0763ae48da2e52ec9a60d5732d54fe46d2e352db4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63d8…766ebacked Yes | 5c | 6,849$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 13c | 2,296$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…35e6backed Yes | 9c | 2,042$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.02 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,399$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…2d32backed Yes | 2c | 1,101$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…8cbebacked Yes | 11c | 1,023$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…2aedbacked Yes | 10c | 1,009$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 909.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56bd…e58dbacked Yes | 11c | 854.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.94 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…47c8backed Yes | 14c | 804.67$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.61 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08b…6e94backed Yes | 8c | 776.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…8cd8backed Yes | 9c | 774.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 772$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 12c | 770$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 11c | 768.47$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…35d5backed Yes | 13c | 745.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 721.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes | 10c | 697$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…5738backed Yes | 14c | 691.08$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f3…b4e9backed Yes | 9c | 656.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed Yes | 6c | 608.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 606.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed Yes | 12c | 597.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 478.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 8c | 464.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa547…bf03backed Yes | 8c | 412.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 384.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 3c | 343.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 8c | 316$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…ee22backed Yes | 17c | 300.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…efbebacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 79c | 275.69$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 8c | 262.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccdf…b8a7backed Yes | 12c | 255.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e8…fdd3backed Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…3f6ebacked Yes | 28c | 213.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…23c1backed No | 72c | 213.95$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 213.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae7…9603backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed Yes | 6c | 198$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f3…80e4backed Yes | 11c | 198$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bc…1c88backed Yes | 13c | 195$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked Yes | 11c | 190.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 176.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…8b98backed Yes | 12c | 137.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…b6a9backed Yes | 14c | 109.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 10c | 107.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 10c | 105.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 13c | 78.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5c…4e6abacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch?this page
- Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.