TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$278,575
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$222,683

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,575 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 258 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d32…0fb9backed Yes77c32,880$25,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,659.361190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.8wins+0.35per pick56cpaid+82.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No27c20,500$5,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,52012840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8907…a996backed No18c20,000$3,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,649.991926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb562…f7e3backed No14c14,440$2,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,060.2150%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef32…717fbacked Yes77c11,440$8,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x768e…e7f4backed Yes76c10,504$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,503.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed No5c9,622$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.913422.4%30 W · 104 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+175.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed No29c8,565$2,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,451.588327.7%23 W · 60 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9f9…c887backed Yes75c8,018$5,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9a…12a5backed No13c7,030$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.33330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed No0c7,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c6,076$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.522061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e27…c659backed No7c5,906$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.866114.8%9 W · 52 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb27f…2c41backed No49c4,790$2,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,349.481758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No19c4,742$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.85195.3%1 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-91.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37a4…7fe5backed No0c4,714$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb2b…1921backed No22c4,391$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.875058%29 W · 21 L+7.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+43.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xba3c…2e4ebacked No32c3,823$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.672356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21b6…83d8backed No17c3,612$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.838017.5%14 W · 66 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecc4…7a2abacked No45c3,326$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.322466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+23.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4060…3ec3backed Yes56c3,056$1,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.81862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56bd…e58dbacked Yes55c3,010$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,366.072536%9 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9ba…cf54backed No21c2,900$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6221540%6 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcabf…1c31backed Yes72c2,761$1,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x561e…2093backed No27c2,640$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.23234.4%11 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+29%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes79c2,607$2,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.4915941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2b9…d5babacked No16c2,309$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.52250%11 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0df5…e7c2backed No0c2,140$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2540%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No35c2,102$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.3317859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5956…cda5backed No13c2,100$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+218.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed No30c2,037$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6151241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35f9…b6f4backed No19c2,023$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.461921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a1…d158backed No14c2,017$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.48425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2721…325bbacked No14c2,007$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.153438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed No45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9007240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed No41c1,917$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.3414437.5%54 W · 90 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe88b…f99fbacked No45c1,888$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.595345.3%24 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bad…43babacked No45c1,621$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.171533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2614…4442backed Yes54c1,590$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.53053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Yes50c1,561$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.271844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No1c1,533$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.953283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6581…0206backed Yes55c1,500$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6702045%9 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fdf…9d95backed No25c1,484$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.572030%6 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c1,482$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.677663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2796…2aedbacked Yes70c1,426$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.421526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No13c1,395$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.1114732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No16c1,305$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.8125422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6aa…9fc0backed No46c1,250$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2409…c116backed No41c1,208$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.52560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaed4…2361backed Yes79c1,197$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b2c…4badbacked No49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc723…7778backed No16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cad…7c73backed No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick26cpaid+258.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed No3c1,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd77…4abdbacked No42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c6…5d87backed No52c999.88$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fa6…e1ffbacked No51c977.61$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x654b…35e6backed Yes77c964.11$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.261118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-71.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf7…b2bdbacked No37c944.44$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.742846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebfd…dd70backed No24c917.75$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.212429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc93…8b29backed Yes55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.091850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb67a…07aebacked Yes77c854$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.42450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c8…f181backed Yes72c849.07$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe275…f00cbacked Yes75c840.99$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x429a…d58cbacked No6c830$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.82941.4%12 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49a…c2f7backed Yes47c821.14$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.143100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+98.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9aa8…1f7bbacked No20c800$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1603727%10 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb438…24a2backed Yes50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-71.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0b9…74d8backed No42c730$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.62770.4%19 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x707b…dff6backed Yes63c723.15$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked No41c700$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2904050%20 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce63…1e98backed Yes66c679.88$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+79%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x356a…bfeabacked No38c660$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.84531.1%14 W · 31 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+265%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa547…bf03backed No17c650$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.52231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes77c649.35$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.354148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8db9…8b0fbacked Yes77c600$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-47.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No38c600$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.2614141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa172…b716backed Yes54c586.69$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.993531.4%11 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-43.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No4c551.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.962917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-40.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed No11c538.24$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.244742.6%20 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes78c525.46$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.911124.3%27 W · 84 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+153.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes60c525$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21013023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb99…4daebacked No15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759222.8%21 W · 71 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+60.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2a4…a6e0backed No23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1155425.9%14 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+40.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed No16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid+62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Yes58c499.99$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20919543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x999f…da43backed Yes74c492.94$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.942766.7%18 W · 9 L+7.0wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+93.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0c69…c30ebacked Yes48c481.37$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.312100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+182.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9892…0a7bbacked No17c480$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No22c478.17$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0435712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2fe4…5504backed Yes51c476.72$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.971435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-28.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x407b…6722backed Yes65c472.35$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.98771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+30.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b34…be64backed No44c454.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f76…e1e7backed Yes62c437$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No4c425$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36ce…daddbacked Yes61c421.99$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.582638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebb2…c640backed Yes57c414.3$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.32060%12 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b17…cb13backed Yes58c409.1$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.71172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.31per pick42cpaid+55.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6650…71b6backed No40c409.1$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1652835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No45c408.93$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.924320.9%9 W · 34 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.