Token Launches · resolved market
Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3289edec845b8b8f421b5300f88335782535db28ea6bfcab329ff09235ebb130
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $278,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 258 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d32…0fb9backed Yes | 77c | 32,880$25,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,659.36 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 56cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 27c | 20,500$5,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,520 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 18c | 20,000$3,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,649.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb562…f7e3backed No | 14c | 14,440$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…717fbacked Yes | 77c | 11,440$8,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,639.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768e…e7f4backed Yes | 76c | 10,504$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,503.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 5c | 9,622$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.9 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 29c | 8,565$2,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,451.58 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f9…c887backed Yes | 75c | 8,018$5,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…12a5backed No | 13c | 7,030$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.3 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 0c | 7,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 6,076$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed No | 7c | 5,906$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.86 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…2c41backed No | 49c | 4,790$2,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,349.48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 19c | 4,742$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.85 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…7fe5backed No | 0c | 4,714$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 22c | 4,391$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.87 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…2e4ebacked No | 32c | 3,823$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.67 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed No | 17c | 3,612$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.83 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked No | 45c | 3,326$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.32 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Yes | 56c | 3,056$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56bd…e58dbacked Yes | 55c | 3,010$1,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.07 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 21c | 2,900$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcabf…1c31backed Yes | 72c | 2,761$1,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…2093backed No | 27c | 2,640$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.2 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 79c | 2,607$2,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.49 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b9…d5babacked No | 16c | 2,309$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df5…e7c2backed No | 0c | 2,140$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 35c | 2,102$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.33 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…cda5backed No | 13c | 2,100$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 30c | 2,037$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…b6f4backed No | 19c | 2,023$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.46 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a1…d158backed No | 14c | 2,017$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked No | 14c | 2,007$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.15 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 41c | 1,917$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.34 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f99fbacked No | 45c | 1,888$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.59 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bad…43babacked No | 45c | 1,621$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.17 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed Yes | 54c | 1,590$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 50c | 1,561$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.27 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 1,533$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…0206backed Yes | 55c | 1,500$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…9d95backed No | 25c | 1,484$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.57 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,482$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…2aedbacked Yes | 70c | 1,426$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.42 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 13c | 1,395$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.11 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 1,305$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.81 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…9fc0backed No | 46c | 1,250$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…c116backed No | 41c | 1,208$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…2361backed Yes | 79c | 1,197$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…4badbacked No | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc723…7778backed No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cad…7c73backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +258.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed No | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…4abdbacked No | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…5d87backed No | 52c | 999.88$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…e1ffbacked No | 51c | 977.61$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…35e6backed Yes | 77c | 964.11$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf7…b2bdbacked No | 37c | 944.44$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.74 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…dd70backed No | 24c | 917.75$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.21 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc93…8b29backed Yes | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb67a…07aebacked Yes | 77c | 854$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…f181backed Yes | 72c | 849.07$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe275…f00cbacked Yes | 75c | 840.99$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…d58cbacked No | 6c | 830$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49a…c2f7backed Yes | 47c | 821.14$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked No | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…24a2backed Yes | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b9…74d8backed No | 42c | 730$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.6 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…dff6backed Yes | 63c | 723.15$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 700$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce63…1e98backed Yes | 66c | 679.88$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…bfeabacked No | 38c | 660$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.8 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa547…bf03backed No | 17c | 650$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…8b0fbacked Yes | 77c | 600$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 38c | 600$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.26 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…b716backed Yes | 54c | 586.69$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.99 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 4c | 551.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 11c | 538.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 78c | 525.46$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.9 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 60c | 525$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…a6e0backed No | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 58c | 499.99$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 74c | 492.94$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.94 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +7.0wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…c30ebacked Yes | 48c | 481.37$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +182.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked No | 17c | 480$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 478.17$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe4…5504backed Yes | 51c | 476.72$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.97 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x407b…6722backed Yes | 65c | 472.35$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b34…be64backed No | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f76…e1e7backed Yes | 62c | 437$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 4c | 425$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked Yes | 61c | 421.99$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.58 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed Yes | 57c | 414.3$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.3 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b17…cb13backed Yes | 58c | 409.1$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.7 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 40c | 409.1$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 45c | 408.93$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.92 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.