TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$492,156
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$362,883

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $492,156 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 357 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe9f9…c887backed Yes57c33,423$18,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,455.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb623…4203backed No31c30,000$9,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,300933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No33c25,994$8,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,677.3517859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed No23c24,914$5,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,749.148327.7%23 W · 60 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x127b…b59bbacked No6c23,739$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,430.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4df…461abacked Yes71c18,421$12,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,426.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044b…db62backed Yes68c14,745$9,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,748.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc451…d366backed Yes70c14,288$9,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,292.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed No41c12,943$5,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,365.594751.1%24 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+29.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x849b…e7a5backed No3c12,320$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.65616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-74%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x527f…0ae5backed No33c11,873$3,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9461060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked No2c9,380$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.53319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-73.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5956…cda5backed No15c9,317$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.06944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+218.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef32…717fbacked Yes67c9,292$6,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,098.012100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a33…c087backed No28c9,099$2,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,523.43756.8%21 W · 16 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+25.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xba3c…2e4ebacked No42c8,503$3,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,564.62356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb2b…1921backed No31c7,200$2,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2025058%29 W · 21 L+7.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+43.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked No1c7,173$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.263330.3%10 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+168.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No25c6,699$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,659.17195.3%1 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-91.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8907…a996backed No41c6,517$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,649.971926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35f9…b6f4backed No37c6,332$2,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350.91921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c4…93a7backed No33c6,234$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0306127.9%17 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…be6cbacked No47c6,052$2,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,838.765832.8%19 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+29.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed No7c5,190$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.1813422.4%30 W · 104 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+175.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed No35c5,149$1,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,817.4512528%35 W · 90 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.0112840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaab0…da5bbacked No6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed No21c5,000$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.4913023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb562…f7e3backed No32c4,884$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.9250%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecc4…7a2abacked No27c4,470$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.372466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+23.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d03…71d3backed Yes65c4,166$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed Yes50c4,059$2,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,013.312254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4e6…4bd4backed No27c4,040$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.418854.5%48 W · 40 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x962a…cdf8backed No14c3,999$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x654b…35e6backed Yes54c3,920$2,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,813.21118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-71.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1edd…be0fbacked No10c3,733$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.882218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-63.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No4c3,319$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.25655.4%31 W · 25 L+13.4wins+0.24per pick31cpaid+86.6%equal weight68+0.17 edge/pick
0x5c95…30cbbacked No42c3,078$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.934942.9%21 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c1…0a4cbacked No37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked No39c3,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1705347.2%25 W · 28 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x768e…e7f4backed Yes69c2,898$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked No48c2,855$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36415539.4%61 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes61c2,849$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.934148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x561e…2093backed No33c2,800$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.53234.4%11 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+29%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c50…8100backed No5c2,710$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.151414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…6c7cbacked No35c2,300$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c2,289$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.452061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed No33c2,275$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.851241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked No22c2,212$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.1313131.3%41 W · 90 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+164.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Yes30c2,205$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.871844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No5c2,178$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.622377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc723…7778backed No46c2,159$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1340…e38bbacked No47c2,137$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.991747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No34c2,060$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.1235712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd536…6659backed No6c2,038$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.77475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick27cpaid+140.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f65…1679backed Yes58c2,027$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.751776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick54cpaid+34%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7c4c…a5f0backed No36c2,002$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.299142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No4c2,001$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.262333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc5b…5100backed No35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+37.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80015941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c1,987$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.613283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c5d…18c7backed No26c1,900$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No27c1,853$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.6911124.3%27 W · 84 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+153.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77e4…d18fbacked No27c1,776$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.825736.8%21 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b45…bc22backed No43c1,772$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.051030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef94…f8c4backed No56c1,771$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ab…db8abacked No42c1,700$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7141631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa61a…3d71backed Yes60c1,669$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.391040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+51.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5091…db41backed Yes65c1,496$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No23c1,452$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.9125422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ae7…9603backed No45c1,400$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.616656.1%37 W · 29 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+39.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x24f4…0f4abacked No5c1,400$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.971471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.8wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+42.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0164…9ed6backed No35c1,307$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.543148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x429a…d58cbacked No43c1,305$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.92941.4%12 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No5c1,298$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.392630.8%8 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick14cpaid+33.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b92…5ba3backed No25c1,249$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.821040%4 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+51.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d32…0fb9backed Yes38c1,208$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.211190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.8wins+0.35per pick56cpaid+82.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd038…dc98backed Yes59c1,200$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaed4…2361backed Yes67c1,191$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x999f…da43backed Yes73c1,128$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.282766.7%18 W · 9 L+7.0wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+93.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2409…c116backed No34c1,120$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No34c1,093$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.5319543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe470…4187backed No6c1,088$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-52.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes71c1,050$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.4217948%86 W · 93 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7371…cadebacked No59c1,029$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.995457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No45c1,018$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.3114732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a97…1f4bbacked No32c1,015$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.591216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-67%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x356a…bfeabacked No35c1,013$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.434531.1%14 W · 31 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+265%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc2b9…d5babacked No43c1,000$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.352250%11 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0cad…7c73backed No35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick26cpaid+258.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a47…740bbacked No38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3802853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+50.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b9a…12a5backed No39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3903330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a2…089cbacked No21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e93…d24bbacked No21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c90…5bacbacked No44c1,000$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.515320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbf…6c43backed No41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4104942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+93.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…feb0backed No30c1,000$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2953225%8 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid+23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aa8…1f7bbacked No21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2103727%10 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x63d8…766ebacked Yes50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5bb…a429backed Yes55c999.99$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.