Token Launches · resolved market
Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x603f51da1b9c5ba3f27f8b68773242ee3c75d1708450df1ea72f71a27a38ee03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $492,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $362,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $492,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 357 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9f9…c887backed Yes | 57c | 33,423$18,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,455.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…4203backed No | 31c | 30,000$9,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,300 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 33c | 25,994$8,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,677.35 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 23c | 24,914$5,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,749.14 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127b…b59bbacked No | 6c | 23,739$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4df…461abacked Yes | 71c | 18,421$12,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,426.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044b…db62backed Yes | 68c | 14,745$9,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,748.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…d366backed Yes | 70c | 14,288$9,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,292.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed No | 41c | 12,943$5,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,365.59 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…e7a5backed No | 3c | 12,320$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x527f…0ae5backed No | 33c | 11,873$3,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,946 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 2c | 9,380$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.53 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…cda5backed No | 15c | 9,317$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…717fbacked Yes | 67c | 9,292$6,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,098.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed No | 28c | 9,099$2,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,523.4 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…2e4ebacked No | 42c | 8,503$3,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,564.6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 31c | 7,200$2,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,202 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked No | 1c | 7,173$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 25c | 6,699$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.17 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 41c | 6,517$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,649.97 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…b6f4backed No | 37c | 6,332$2,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350.9 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed No | 33c | 6,234$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…be6cbacked No | 47c | 6,052$2,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,838.76 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 7c | 5,190$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.18 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 35c | 5,149$1,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,817.45 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.01 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…da5bbacked No | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed No | 21c | 5,000$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.49 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb562…f7e3backed No | 32c | 4,884$1,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked No | 27c | 4,470$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.37 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d03…71d3backed Yes | 65c | 4,166$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 50c | 4,059$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,013.31 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 27c | 4,040$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.41 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x962a…cdf8backed No | 14c | 3,999$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…35e6backed Yes | 54c | 3,920$2,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,813.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…be0fbacked No | 10c | 3,733$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.88 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 4c | 3,319$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.2 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +13.4wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked No | 42c | 3,078$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.93 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…0a4cbacked No | 37c | 3,000$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked No | 39c | 3,000$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x768e…e7f4backed Yes | 69c | 2,898$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 48c | 2,855$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes | 61c | 2,849$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.93 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…2093backed No | 33c | 2,800$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.5 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c50…8100backed No | 5c | 2,710$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…6c7cbacked No | 35c | 2,300$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 2,289$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 33c | 2,275$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 22c | 2,212$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.13 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 30c | 2,205$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.87 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 5c | 2,178$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.62 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc723…7778backed No | 46c | 2,159$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1340…e38bbacked No | 47c | 2,137$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 34c | 2,060$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.12 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd536…6659backed No | 6c | 2,038$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f65…1679backed Yes | 58c | 2,027$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.75 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +34%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed No | 36c | 2,002$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.29 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 2,001$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…5100backed No | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 1,987$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…18c7backed No | 26c | 1,900$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 27c | 1,853$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.69 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…d18fbacked No | 27c | 1,776$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.82 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b45…bc22backed No | 43c | 1,772$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…f8c4backed No | 56c | 1,771$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ab…db8abacked No | 42c | 1,700$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61a…3d71backed Yes | 60c | 1,669$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…db41backed Yes | 65c | 1,496$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 1,452$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.91 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae7…9603backed No | 45c | 1,400$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.61 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24f4…0f4abacked No | 5c | 1,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed No | 35c | 1,307$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.54 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…d58cbacked No | 43c | 1,305$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.9 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 5c | 1,298$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…5ba3backed No | 25c | 1,249$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d32…0fb9backed Yes | 38c | 1,208$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.21 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 56cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…dc98backed Yes | 59c | 1,200$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…2361backed Yes | 67c | 1,191$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 73c | 1,128$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.28 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +7.0wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…c116backed No | 34c | 1,120$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 34c | 1,093$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.53 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe470…4187backed No | 6c | 1,088$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 71c | 1,050$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.42 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked No | 59c | 1,029$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.99 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 45c | 1,018$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.31 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a97…1f4bbacked No | 32c | 1,015$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.59 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…bfeabacked No | 35c | 1,013$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.43 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b9…d5babacked No | 43c | 1,000$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.35 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cad…7c73backed No | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +258.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a47…740bbacked No | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…12a5backed No | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…089cbacked No | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e93…d24bbacked No | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked No | 44c | 1,000$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.51 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…6c43backed No | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed No | 30c | 1,000$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked No | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63d8…766ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bb…a429backed Yes | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.