Token Launches · resolved market
Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf42186f6b5dbb0ee44e627e43fb3af3ee74c09cfda3e07e78d959bd49e0f6265
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 4c | 9,086$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.44 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…cc22backed No | 7c | 7,037$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 0c | 6,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 7c | 5,000$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.35 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 4,776$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…4d42backed No | 1c | 3,732$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed No | 5c | 3,153$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.51 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 2,578$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…a6e0backed No | 3c | 2,282$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 1c | 2,178$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…ffd4backed No | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d4…b6e5backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 2c | 1,896$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…70a8backed No | 3c | 1,832$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f1…6395backed No | 1c | 1,786$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +295.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c77…f1d6backed No | 3c | 1,786$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,743$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 1,327$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 2c | 1,063$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 1,062$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked No | 6c | 1,030$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked No | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…2093backed No | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84da…0a03backed No | 3c | 743.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…b8f5backed No | 4c | 542.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…51fdbacked No | 6c | 491.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 4c | 453.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…5144backed No | 5c | 396.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 3c | 364.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf7…b2bdbacked No | 7c | 349.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa547…bf03backed No | 8c | 322.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed No | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 5c | 282.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 4c | 256.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch?this page
- Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
- Fabric FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.