Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23018ae1f09a9f4485dc67fbef59c872bb022d6740cc2fc065a1fbb9a80bc62e

Rebuilt 1 minute ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $229,644
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $137,834

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,644 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	16,725$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.34	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedcd…2507backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-58.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	6,924$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.89	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	6,318$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.29	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	12c	6,200$722 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$722	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	3,874$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.33	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…2082backed Yes	12c	3,527$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.23	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+93.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	3,173$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.85	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	2,945$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.29	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	7c	2,300$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.11	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	5c	1,938$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb914…d12ebacked Yes	15c	1,886$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.27	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	11c	1,803$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.08	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	11c	1,760$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	1,752$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.19	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	11c	1,722$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	2c	1,465$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.28	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,309$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.92	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	10c	1,249$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.97	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	1,208$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.33	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63e3…7d85backed Yes	3c	1,168$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	3cpaid	+889.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	1,160$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	12c	1,157$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.84	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5040…df4abacked Yes	2c	1,129$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	3c	1,100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.19	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	1c	1,024$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.92	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	4c	1,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41af…68eabacked Yes	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed Yes	3c	999.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+163.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	12c	999.99$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	11c	999.99$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes	14c	949.54$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.01	79	30.4%24 W · 55 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0686…b980backed Yes	13c	899.77$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	874.34$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.77	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2fd1backed Yes	13c	844$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.67	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f13…a85fbacked Yes	16c	804.34$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	800$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	11c	799.96$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe68d…f5b2backed Yes	12c	761.89$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	73	20.5%15 W · 58 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	12c	755.9$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.09	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	12c	732.82$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.58	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	9c	710$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.9	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	4c	700$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	700$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	2c	700$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1010…4ee1backed Yes	5c	700$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	12c	699.99$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.33	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	664.11$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.17	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Yes	15c	658.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-14%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7176…2f81backed Yes	10c	649.98$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-59%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00dc…d521backed Yes	2c	622.44$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Yes	12c	600$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	107	27.1%29 W · 78 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	9c	599.65$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.04	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	570.19$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.36	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	3c	543.94$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	508.83$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.17	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	9c	502.36$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.51	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	11c	500$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.78	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5282…1208backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.94	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-42%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	10c	499.84$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.98	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	9c	499.72$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.93	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes	13c	442.75$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.5	93	21.5%20 W · 73 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	4c	428.81$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	12c	419.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac63…b27bbacked Yes	14c	363.5$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.56	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	8c	350$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed Yes	11c	349.99$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	61	21.3%13 W · 48 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	12c	340$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.8	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	12c	332.41$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.59	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	12c	331.23$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.37	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73be…3113backed Yes	14c	300.4$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.64	36	5.6%2 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc622…8f86backed Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	50	24%12 W · 38 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9a…a41fbacked Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	33cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	12c	300$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe423…2492backed Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	26cpaid	-88.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	13c	299.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	11c	299.98$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf93…2fd7backed Yes	13c	297.91$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c7…5845backed Yes	17c	271$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.22	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe612…a441backed Yes	13c	270$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.1	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	12c	252.14$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	6c	243$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.41	83	12%10 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	13c	230.84$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.01	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	15c	225$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.38	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae9…7cc7backed Yes	12c	225$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x660a…2ef5backed Yes	13c	217.18$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.25	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	18cpaid	-92.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes	14c	215.53$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.94	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d2a…9170backed Yes	12c	207.81$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	91	8.8%8 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	74	10.8%8 W · 66 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	10c	190$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbc…6d64backed Yes	14c	185.71$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a03…0176backed Yes	14c	184.64$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.85	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca7…fe9dbacked Yes	11c	175.55$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.47	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3974…e5cebacked Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2469…b6bcbacked Yes	16c	155$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.55	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc765…a868backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes	11c	150$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event