Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd057c6c13c8b6dcc37367aa20070e094163798c6f2185d3a846f5d6a54ac7d0e

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $202,694
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $133,280

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,694 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	3c	11,123$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.97	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	10,436$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.84	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	7,823$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.81	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	6,232$536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$536.26	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	6,074$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.81	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	6,015$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.79	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	3,783$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.16	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f8…fdf7backed Yes	1c	3,550$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f17…d5acbacked Yes	1c	3,182$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	10c	2,950$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.5	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	2,768$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.76	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63e3…7d85backed Yes	1c	2,694$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	3cpaid	+889.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,494$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.12	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	6c	2,120$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.41	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	1c	2,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	1,935$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.81	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	1,925$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.38	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	11c	1,814$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	1,680$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.02	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	7c	1,495$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.81	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7176…2f81backed Yes	9c	1,400$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-59%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	1,380$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.08	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	1c	1,343$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.23	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	1,269$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.26	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	1,198$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.81	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	12c	1,157$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.85	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc60d…8887backed Yes	12c	1,154$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.46	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0686…b980backed Yes	11c	1,090$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	5c	999.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	10c	999.98$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x267a…f31ebacked Yes	9c	999.97$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	1c	999.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	8c	848.68$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.45	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc17c…20ffbacked Yes	9c	800$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-90%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe612…a441backed Yes	7c	740$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.6	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	736.52$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.72	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes	7c	700$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	6c	700$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1010…4ee1backed Yes	4c	699.99$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Yes	10c	670$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-14%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	7c	650.01$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.4	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	4c	600$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	9c	599.96$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2fd1backed Yes	10c	590$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	520.17$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.74	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc622…8f86backed Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	50	24%12 W · 38 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb14f…4110backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5282…1208backed Yes	12c	500$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.9	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-42%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	9c	499.96$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	10c	499.68$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.17	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	6c	402.21$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.15	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	9c	400$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	10c	399.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	11c	363.64$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf93…2fd7backed Yes	11c	361.1$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	6c	349.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x660a…2ef5backed Yes	11c	340.91$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	18cpaid	-92.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x560b…5bf9backed Yes	9c	319.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.8	50	10%5 W · 45 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	10c	300$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	9c	298.96$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.91	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73be…3113backed Yes	11c	265$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.15	36	5.6%2 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	9c	246.57$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.19	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ae9…7cc7backed Yes	10c	225$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ca…7d8fbacked Yes	9c	210.82$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.97	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbc…6d64backed Yes	10c	210$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	7c	208.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.62	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	9c	200.09$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	74	10.8%8 W · 66 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d2a…9170backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	91	8.8%8 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe423…2492backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	26cpaid	-88.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	10c	200$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47e0…6510backed Yes	11c	192.31$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	54	20.4%11 W · 43 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	10c	190.78$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.48	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3974…e5cebacked Yes	11c	178.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4071…3de4backed Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	22.7%10 W · 34 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7217…a87cbacked Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	15cpaid	-82.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	8c	158.46$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2469…b6bcbacked Yes	9c	154.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.95	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e6e…a9dbbacked Yes	7c	150$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bc2…4ee2backed Yes	9c	125$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…d264backed Yes	10c	120$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+222%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	10c	119.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe12a…040abacked Yes	12c	108.33$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-86.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe836…8fe7backed Yes	10c	103$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	30cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d89bbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6620…75dabacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafc2…babebacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c2a…1a2fbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fb1…17d7backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7213…b796backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5730…5cffbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	55	9.1%5 W · 50 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a2c…0746backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…7734backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad0c…df3cbacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	280	34.3%96 W · 184 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b71…0c09backed Yes	13c	80$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event