Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae3f85f20d56983c7338111e097d95d494c63594ea47e6df95c20c7f006e7675

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,137,622
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $678,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,137,622 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	68,232$2,025 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,025.13	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	34,944$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.94	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	4c	29,721$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100.13	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	27,776$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.78	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	24,743$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.74	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee5…0836backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes	1c	19,745$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.52	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	0c	19,579$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.58	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	2c	18,054$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.17	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	0c	17,053$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.88	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes	0c	15,596$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	341	27.3%93 W · 248 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	12,420$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd3…d6b2backed Yes	0c	10,548$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	9,227$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.84	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	8,000$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	7,590$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.21	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	5c	7,540$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.08	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	7c	7,310$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.37	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	7,268$748 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$747.82	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	5c	7,258$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.59	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	6c	7,116$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.11	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	7,087$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.76	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	1c	6,846$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.08	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	0c	6,263$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	1c	6,000$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	6,000$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.5	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	5,859$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.01	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba63…e860backed Yes	0c	5,564$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc17…d1aebacked Yes	2c	5,328$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.7	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63e3…7d85backed Yes	3c	5,181$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.65	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	3cpaid	+889.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	22c	5,000$1,077 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,077.17	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafcf…d662backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	13cpaid	+46%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe688…2d8dbacked Yes	17c	5,000$870 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$870	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3457…0161backed Yes	1c	4,841$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.51	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82f7…7c3bbacked Yes	1c	4,784$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes	9c	4,769$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	2c	4,433$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.56	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	2c	4,140$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a68…22dfbacked Yes	0c	4,059$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.84	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	4,051$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.65	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b4…c103backed Yes	1c	3,885$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+153.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	2c	3,799$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.9	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	3c	3,640$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.82	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	2c	3,393$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.14	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	3c	3,227$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.29	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	17c	3,175$528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$528.14	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	4c	3,075$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.5	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	13c	2,719$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.46	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes	3c	2,700$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	149	23.5%35 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	2,688$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.65	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	12c	2,677$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.36	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23c4…84f3backed Yes	6c	2,621$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	3c	2,578$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	4c	2,500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes	4c	2,334$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.51	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	5c	2,254$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.11	83	12%10 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	2,207$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.15	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	7c	2,191$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.32	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	2,186$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.62	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f31…f6b2backed Yes	1c	2,143$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	4c	2,127$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.69	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	1c	2,100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd3…3a42backed Yes	13c	2,090$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.34	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	18c	2,026$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.63	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	15c	2,000$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	18c	2,000$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.92	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	1,901$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.17	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	12c	1,857$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	6c	1,840$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.25	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	1,716$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.91	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	12c	1,700$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.4	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	1c	1,680$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	3c	1,629$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.01	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	4c	1,549$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	8c	1,528$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.54	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	3c	1,500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	5c	1,481$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.44	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes	4c	1,436$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.9	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	6c	1,427$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.89	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9876…fbeebacked Yes	18c	1,425$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.32	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	10c	1,414$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.72	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f7e…d49bbacked Yes	5c	1,396$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.57	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	4c	1,378$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	2c	1,324$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.91	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	7c	1,320$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.89	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	4c	1,301$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb56a…a485backed Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	4c	1,250$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.46	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	19c	1,236$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.58	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	8c	1,175$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.63	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,144$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.3	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	21c	1,100$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.5	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	8c	1,081$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.77	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes	2c	1,037$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	131	16.8%22 W · 109 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	1,019$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.16	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bfc…55bbbacked Yes	3c	1,011$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.24	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-67.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	20c	1,004$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.53	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Yes	4c	1,003$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	8c	1,000$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.63	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	3c	1,000$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event