Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73d67ee4076e87bde2a863880f945e7020dd52e00a1a0e740dcb389810c974a0

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,276,549
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $717,642

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,276,549 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	146,217$2,846 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,845.98	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	26,363$1,626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,625.62	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	22,286$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.76	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	3c	18,934$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.71	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes	1c	18,788$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.66	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	4c	17,986$673 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$672.68	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87f4…8be8backed Yes	3c	14,970$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.5	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	13,579$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.48	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	12,325$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.45	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	10c	11,446$1,187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,186.93	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	0c	10,224$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.84	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69b6…b51bbacked Yes	0c	9,780$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	0c	9,440$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	8,266$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$779.75	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	7,800$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.4	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	7,640$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700.14	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	7c	7,619$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$523.06	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	7,537$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.42	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	7,423$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.9	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	1c	6,791$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.01	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes	1c	6,719$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.19	12	0%0 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	6,297$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.19	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	3c	6,028$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.96	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	4c	6,012$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.44	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes	8c	5,899$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481.8	80	31.3%25 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa9…c8e8backed Yes	2c	5,499$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.11	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+89.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes	1c	5,332$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	341	27.3%93 W · 248 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	2c	5,281$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.89	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	2c	5,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked No	78c	4,846$3,765 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,080.59	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	4,831$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.63	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	4,800$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.2	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	4,754$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.86	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	4,668$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.56	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b29…f712backed Yes	2c	4,651$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	+114.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	1c	4,639$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.79	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	1c	4,537$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.97	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4e5…25c1backed Yes	3c	4,312$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.2	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	33cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	4c	4,068$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.11	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	10c	4,044$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.85	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	3c	4,018$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.05	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes	1c	3,991$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.04	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd3…3a42backed Yes	17c	3,677$637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$636.95	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed Yes	1c	3,500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xafcf…d662backed Yes	1c	3,500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	13cpaid	+46%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	12c	3,500$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.19	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes	3c	3,426$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.44	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	3c	3,400$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.6	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	3,387$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.97	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	2c	3,279$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.95	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	3,205$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.52	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	3,186$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.85	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	4c	3,164$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	10c	3,105$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.24	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	3,046$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.25	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	17c	3,024$508 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$508.43	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	2c	3,000$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63e3…7d85backed Yes	4c	2,971$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.42	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	3cpaid	+889.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	2c	2,800$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.4	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes	1c	2,794$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.11	149	23.5%35 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4f…2490backed Yes	23c	2,755$635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$635.17	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes	3c	2,745$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.74	93	21.5%20 W · 73 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee5…0836backed Yes	2c	2,738$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.55	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	1c	2,683$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.49	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes	5c	2,644$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.39	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	8c	2,643$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	2c	2,632$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.34	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a68…22dfbacked Yes	1c	2,563$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	4c	2,544$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.27	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	3c	2,543$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.97	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	2c	2,499$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.61	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	11c	2,300$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.9	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	21c	2,269$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485.44	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd3…d6b2backed Yes	1c	2,224$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	16c	2,181$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.83	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	2,175$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.3	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	8c	2,099$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.71	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	2,098$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.51	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	9c	2,071$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.5	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	8c	2,047$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.18	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	2,018$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.14	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x23c4…84f3backed Yes	10c	2,014$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.68	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	4c	2,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	2c	2,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	4c	2,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	2,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.09	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	1,973$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.21	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	11c	1,972$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.29	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,908$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.68	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993d…5a1dbacked Yes	1c	1,897$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	6c	1,876$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	14c	1,844$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.79	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc394…0082backed Yes	5c	1,838$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-2.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	16c	1,819$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.75	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	5c	1,772$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.11	83	12%10 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc460…e689backed Yes	2c	1,755$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-74.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	10c	1,739$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.9	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	5c	1,700$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.6	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	15c	1,682$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.83	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event