Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c81e54e9e332fceccc015aac16f6d4179ecc2fee44073643472f4c58fc8101a

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $145,866
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $89,526

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,866 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	11,628$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.88	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	0c	7,828$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.77	26	0%0 W · 26 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	6,530$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.58	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	5,203$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.77	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x267a…f31ebacked Yes	5c	3,300$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.7	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	4c	2,600$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.2	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc17c…20ffbacked Yes	5c	2,400$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.8	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-90%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	5c	2,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	5c	2,000$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	1,857$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.99	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	2c	1,500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,332$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,065$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.57	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	3c	1,023$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.43	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	4c	999.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	3c	999.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	3c	988.74$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	2c	800$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	4c	779.93$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.34	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	731.75$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.81	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	2c	652.17$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	621.87$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.38	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	606.61$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.85	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	528.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.36	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	528.24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.04	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c5…fbcfbacked Yes	2c	510.41$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	4c	499.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes	5c	404.09$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.55	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	3c	394.66$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	83	12%10 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90a0…2969backed Yes	4c	361.33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event