Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bb11a6406939a80cb0bab2d58607fca60741903e94926e00a5eb7fd6be20f8a

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $626,791
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $329,480

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $626,791 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	29,136$1,067 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,067.06	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	19,547$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.33	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	0c	14,593$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.12	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	14,395$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.76	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	11,510$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.87	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	10,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b13…5957backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf36b…c37cbacked Yes	2c	9,577$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	2c	8,798$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.78	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	8,386$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.21	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	1c	8,307$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.78	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a10…c1b9backed Yes	0c	8,142$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.78	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	7,889$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.06	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	17c	6,692$1,146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,146.2	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc87…2553backed Yes	0c	5,852$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.35	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	5,818$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.41	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe688…2d8dbacked Yes	5c	5,000$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	1c	4,749$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.07	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	4,511$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525.71	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes	1c	4,390$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.34	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	3c	4,387$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	3,870$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.17	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	15c	3,795$564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$564	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	3,565$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.8	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	3,422$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.45	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	3,120$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.89	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	7c	2,933$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.29	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b29…f712backed Yes	1c	2,667$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	+114.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	15c	2,630$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$394.07	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	15c	2,496$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.41	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6201…d386backed Yes	22c	2,434$533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$532.99	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	7c	2,299$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.22	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	3c	2,288$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.84	83	12%10 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x23c4…84f3backed Yes	1c	2,284$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9876…fbeebacked Yes	23c	2,147$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.51	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	2,135$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.8	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	10c	2,127$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.94	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	2,116$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.36	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	2,000$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	4c	2,000$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	5c	2,000$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes	9c	1,984$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.95	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	9c	1,934$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.9	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	15c	1,813$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.12	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	17c	1,573$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.87	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	1,569$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.87	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	13c	1,500$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.36	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	10c	1,500$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	4c	1,500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,495$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.67	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	14c	1,437$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.1	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	9c	1,416$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.86	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed Yes	5c	1,350$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.69	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+163.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	9c	1,264$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	9c	1,200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f4f…b421backed Yes	4c	1,200$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.23	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2fd1backed Yes	14c	1,180$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.92	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9519…9739backed Yes	17c	1,150$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	1,120$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.32	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0686…b980backed Yes	11c	1,108$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	10c	1,042$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.33	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	7c	1,038$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	14c	1,036$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.34	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	10c	1,020$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.92	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f7e…d49bbacked Yes	14c	1,001$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.15	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	16c	1,000$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.26	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	11c	1,000$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.32	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…2364backed Yes	15c	974.74$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.73	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	15c	947.86$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.74	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…f5a5backed Yes	15c	916.02$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.26	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	11c	847.44$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.65	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6de0…af02backed Yes	3c	790.04$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.71	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	12c	769.77$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26c5…ee21backed Yes	15c	700$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.52	73	11%8 W · 65 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes	10c	700$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.8	100	15%15 W · 85 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	14c	690$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.3	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	8c	666.11$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.96	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc730…ace1backed Yes	6c	628.41$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.03	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x30bd…97c7backed Yes	9c	605$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.93	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	5c	600$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.4	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	9c	592.68$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.94	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73be…3113backed Yes	16c	591.76$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.94	36	5.6%2 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	16c	576.42$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.58	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	11c	563.65$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7458…fa86backed Yes	18c	560.51$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e0…fb00backed Yes	24c	532.19$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	46	13%6 W · 40 L	-4.1wins	-0.09per pick	22cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	19c	519.1$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	5c	514.53$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdffa…1ea3backed Yes	6c	511.59$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.63	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-30%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2af…c94bbacked Yes	6c	501.46$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	54	9.3%5 W · 49 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ce2…00a1backed Yes	6c	500.71$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07bd…241bbacked Yes	6c	500.68$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a8f…8b2dbacked Yes	19c	500$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.5	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+3.5wins	+0.14per pick	26cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	12c	500$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.5	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	9c	500$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.72	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	9c	500$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.5	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	9c	486.18$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.24	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event