Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35b968e6400653ca6d53ff64633921b7859cbd4dd3bddc692eb2469d21a83a5e

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $322,492
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $150,694

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $322,492 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	14,693$859 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$858.93	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	3c	10,000$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.82	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	13c	7,900$1,011 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,010.99	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9876…fbeebacked Yes	16c	7,572$1,245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,245	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	0c	6,619$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.24	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	5,818$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.69	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe688…2d8dbacked Yes	2c	5,000$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.99	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	4,965$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.17	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes	12c	4,625$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$557.11	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,002$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.52	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,407$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.3	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes	1c	3,259$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.63	68	19.1%13 W · 55 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…2364backed Yes	4c	2,947$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.87	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	0c	2,781$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.12	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	2,584$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.72	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	10c	2,551$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.1	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	16c	2,278$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	4c	2,096$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.11	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b8b…9eb6backed Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	+43.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	1c	2,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	13c	1,923$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	1,776$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.05	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	11c	1,756$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	13c	1,734$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.98	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	9c	1,700$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.5	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3a…7c00backed Yes	7c	1,516$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	14c	1,500$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	13c	1,500$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.99	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	4c	1,465$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.88	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	7c	1,342$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	1,339$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.6	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1302…b51bbacked Yes	1c	1,279$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+1.7wins	+0.12per pick	9cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe258…be54backed Yes	2c	1,205$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2fd1backed Yes	18c	1,180$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.5	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,158$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.95	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	13c	1,156$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.28	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	11c	1,121$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.2	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	9c	1,110$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.9	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	4c	1,100$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.3	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed Yes	4c	1,100$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+163.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1010…4ee1backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…2082backed Yes	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+93.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	11c	999.99$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x03bf…a94bbacked Yes	13c	999.97$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	2c	991.7$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	976.04$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.31	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	899.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	2c	898.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.51	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	9c	890$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.2	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	3c	890$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	11c	849.99$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.5	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	12c	842.54$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.46	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	11c	829.98$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf12…e4bcbacked Yes	12c	800$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e0…fb00backed Yes	14c	785.71$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	46	13%6 W · 40 L	-4.1wins	-0.09per pick	22cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ad5…1d61backed Yes	13c	764.16$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0686…b980backed Yes	16c	750$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	13c	749.99$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	3c	700$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.7	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	14c	700$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes	9c	699.98$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.3	100	15%15 W · 85 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc60d…8887backed Yes	14c	666.64$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.33	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	616.32$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.71	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	5c	603.38$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	8c	601.56$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Yes	20c	599.99$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	107	27.1%29 W · 78 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73be…3113backed Yes	13c	592.2$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.46	36	5.6%2 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1707…9b9fbacked Yes	13c	587.39$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.36	118	20.3%24 W · 94 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4fa…3c79backed Yes	17c	572.44$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac63…b27bbacked Yes	16c	562.49$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5040…df4abacked Yes	4c	540.84$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x643a…5be6backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	10c	500$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.37	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes	2c	499.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	43	25.6%11 W · 32 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+142.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	10c	499.86$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5282…1208backed Yes	12c	492.96$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.16	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-42%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	7c	490.51$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.24	83	12%10 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe612…a441backed Yes	2c	475.05$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc394…0082backed Yes	13c	461.23$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.96	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-2.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	6c	446.43$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe300…3a12backed Yes	21c	443.26$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.08	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	24c	420.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51da…1076backed Yes	15c	412.2$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5def…1283backed Yes	13c	400$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	23cpaid	-84.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8048…f48dbacked Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	5c	394.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	13c	385$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.05	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	10c	375.57$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.75	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	4c	375$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Yes	17c	363.16$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes	4c	362.68$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	131	16.8%22 W · 109 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4e…a981backed Yes	11c	360$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe68d…f5b2backed Yes	14c	357.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	73	20.5%15 W · 58 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	12c	350$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed Yes	11c	349.97$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	61	21.3%13 W · 48 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	12c	335.68$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.64	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c49…5251backed Yes	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event