Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x505b7de22623130613df93f722ee6b9be7583a4188207bbbc6d6e6b996565841

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 2, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,270,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $579,723

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,270,668 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	1c	57,826$797 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$797.5	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	45,988$2,226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,226.27	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	39,670$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.13	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	0c	33,999$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c5c…9af0backed Yes	1c	29,637$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.82	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	26,682$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.12	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	25,000$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	1c	23,955$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	2c	21,000$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	0c	20,929$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.19	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	0c	19,814$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.81	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	18,328$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.41	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	18,062$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.34	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	4c	18,039$774 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$774.19	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	17,438$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.44	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd6d…b0fbbacked Yes	0c	17,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	19cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	16,020$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.08	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	5c	14,426$696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$695.91	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	14,299$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.8	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	13,941$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.94	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	12,622$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	5c	11,493$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$531.16	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c90…47e5backed Yes	0c	11,391$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	0c	11,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	4c	10,725$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421.12	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	2c	10,660$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.61	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	10,064$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.25	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	10,059$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.06	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	10,039$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.06	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes	1c	9,655$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.86	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	0c	9,633$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.08	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1afb…e524backed Yes	0c	8,548$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+540.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b4…c103backed Yes	1c	8,441$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+153.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	3c	8,015$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.98	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	2c	5,751$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.63	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	2c	5,630$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.16	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	5,368$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.43	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	2c	5,282$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.54	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	5,279$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.68	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	4c	5,148$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	2c	4,585$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.33	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	4,272$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.57	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6124…204fbacked Yes	3c	4,122$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.78	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+160.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	0c	4,034$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.29	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x881f…dfe9backed Yes	0c	4,001$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	7	0%0 W · 7 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	3c	3,638$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.91	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	2c	3,605$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.5	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	3,599$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.47	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	3,370$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.41	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	6c	2,887$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.15	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	1c	2,721$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.71	83	12%10 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b29…f712backed Yes	1c	2,562$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	+114.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes	2c	2,538$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.4	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	2,467$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.83	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b2…51fabacked Yes	2c	2,298$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.34	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+48.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	2,200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	2,130$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.22	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	4c	2,050$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.8	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c39…d4c7backed Yes	1c	1,874$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	5c	1,860$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.28	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	1,781$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb14b…87efbacked Yes	9c	1,757$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,722$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.06	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	1,682$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.44	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	7c	1,624$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.54	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	4c	1,591$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f3…42f5backed Yes	7c	1,554$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.94	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	1c	1,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07c1…e23cbacked Yes	3c	1,487$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.66	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe685…97f7backed Yes	4c	1,400$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.6	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-64%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	3c	1,345$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.85	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe107…eef0backed Yes	1c	1,248$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	1,232$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.5	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe47c…642abacked Yes	6c	1,154$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.44	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+71%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	5c	1,152$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.91	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	2c	1,144$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	6c	1,140$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	4c	1,139$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.67	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3aaa…c18dbacked Yes	1c	1,136$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.59	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+219.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	3c	1,116$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.92	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	3c	1,104$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.27	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae83…da1cbacked Yes	4c	1,081$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.93	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	1,057$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.57	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	4c	1,056$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	1c	1,025$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba87…dfa9backed Yes	3c	1,002$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.29	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	+2.5wins	+0.08per pick	27cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4083…308fbacked Yes	15c	1,000$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b8b…9eb6backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	+43.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	6c	1,000$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.64	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2823…631fbacked Yes	3c	1,000$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes	4c	999.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1df…d544backed Yes	5c	986.57$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e1…fbf4backed Yes	1c	982.53$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	2c	931.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdddc…9935backed Yes	5c	905.71$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.02	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f92…5c90backed Yes	3c	903.69$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.85	77	9.1%7 W · 70 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a68…22dfbacked Yes	2c	887.74$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5d0…4a48backed Yes	11c	815.5$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event