Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c507dfdb0cd493588faecd1f3eb0c864441e0d8c4ed45a83b7749062f299db1

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $583,692
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $312,874

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $583,692 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	41,684$1,414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,413.51	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	18,888$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.89	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	12,142$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.14	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x378e…8c52backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63ed…437dbacked Yes	10c	9,642$968 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$968.11	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.15per pick	28cpaid	-73.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	8,990$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.66	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	3c	8,798$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.63	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	1c	7,500$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.5	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	7,060$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.68	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	6,535$801 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800.76	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	6,500$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.67	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	6,500$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.1	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	2c	6,310$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.66	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	1c	5,787$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.12	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeceb…8d0dbacked Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	5,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	4,606$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.41	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	4,163$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	1c	4,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	15c	3,601$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.19	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	18c	3,406$596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$596.05	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	0c	3,266$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.85	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	5c	3,132$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.94	83	12%10 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	3,116$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.31	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	6c	3,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,832$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes	6c	2,812$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.59	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	11c	2,696$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.31	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	5c	2,500$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.28	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	1c	2,500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	13c	2,401$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.64	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	1c	2,395$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	2,350$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.71	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	14c	2,345$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	10c	2,127$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.17	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	2,123$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.83	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23c4…84f3backed Yes	2c	2,011$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.4	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	20c	2,000$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.9	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	1c	2,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes	14c	2,000$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	3c	2,000$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	11c	2,000$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	3c	1,995$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	1,967$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.8	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	8c	1,939$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.95	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	13c	1,923$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.92	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f4f…b421backed Yes	4c	1,860$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.82	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	13c	1,856$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.74	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	6c	1,845$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.56	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	1,774$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.34	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	1,700$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.9	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	14c	1,677$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.66	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	1c	1,600$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	6c	1,600$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.6	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	1,568$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.78	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes	20c	1,500$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	4c	1,500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	18c	1,500$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	7c	1,478$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.51	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	3c	1,422$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.02	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes	1c	1,309$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.46	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	1,304$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	6c	1,249$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.19	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,219$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.18	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	6c	1,156$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.52	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9876…fbeebacked Yes	20c	1,155$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.81	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	1,135$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.87	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	9c	1,121$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	14c	1,100$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.88	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	1,100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	5c	1,096$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.93	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	1c	1,087$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	9c	1,026$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dcb…2f79backed Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	1,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+163.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	967.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.54	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b29…f712backed Yes	1c	954.94$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	+114.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	18c	949.79$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.72	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes	8c	933.49$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.23	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	10c	900$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	2c	898$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.06	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	897.73$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.71	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x624e…b1a5backed Yes	1c	846.41$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a66…f499backed Yes	10c	823.38$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.31	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	27cpaid	-77.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8048…f48dbacked Yes	7c	795.97$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.74	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	21c	782.1$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.09	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb856…0615backed Yes	10c	776.07$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.16	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+97%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	9c	700$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.53	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	14c	690$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.19	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	2c	676.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.68	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	15c	673.9$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26c5…ee21backed Yes	19c	628.29$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.19	73	11%8 W · 65 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	3c	607.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes	8c	599.98$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.7	100	15%15 W · 85 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2fd1backed Yes	6c	590$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.16	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x73be…3113backed Yes	12c	589.18$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.05	36	5.6%2 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	9c	556.13$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.07	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…6718backed Yes	19c	547$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.95	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.32per pick	52cpaid	-73%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c7…5845backed Yes	12c	542$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.75	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event