Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8a93840613b3efaed1facdb156288ba2c25964c869a404c5e4857c28804135a

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $244,905
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $124,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,905 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	15,593$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.71	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…1ec8backed Yes	0c	9,872$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	9,700$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	9,164$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.8	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	8c	7,860$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600.29	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f8…fdf7backed Yes	0c	6,636$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ca…81b3backed Yes	0c	5,819$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	4,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f17…d5acbacked Yes	1c	3,601$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	2,990$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.64	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	2,528$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.32	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	4c	2,306$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.01	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	8c	2,170$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.63	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	9c	1,848$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x267a…f31ebacked Yes	8c	1,800$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.99	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,613$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.06	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x020d…1a87backed Yes	3c	1,600$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.2	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	1,571$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.96	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	5c	1,500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	5c	1,441$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.84	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	1,401$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.41	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7176…2f81backed Yes	8c	1,355$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.4	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-59%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0686…b980backed Yes	9c	1,352$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,270$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.46	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	7c	1,249$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.78	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	7c	1,233$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.34	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	9c	1,156$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.04	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed Yes	3c	999.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+163.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ca…7d8fbacked Yes	7c	999.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b1e…5989backed Yes	7c	999.94$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc17c…20ffbacked Yes	8c	999.94$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.99	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-90%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes	4c	958.64$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.88	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe612…a441backed Yes	5c	909.54$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.41	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	844.23$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.72	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	2c	841.83$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	840.39$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.36	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	663.95$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.13	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2fd1backed Yes	9c	590.46$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.76	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3974…e5cebacked Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5282…1208backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-42%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	10c	499.96$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	441.01$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	6c	429.98$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.02	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf93…2fd7backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	7c	399.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	5c	341.67$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes	5c	329.6$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	79	30.4%24 W · 55 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	8c	300$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73be…3113backed Yes	9c	265$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.85	36	5.6%2 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	241.74$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.76	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ae9…7cc7backed Yes	9c	225$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.25	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7217…a87cbacked Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	15cpaid	-82.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36c3…de3cbacked Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8fa6…dbd6backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842d…31e9backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d2a…9170backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	91	8.8%8 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes	6c	199.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	74	10.8%8 W · 66 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	8c	180$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc6d…92e9backed Yes	6c	168.28$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	8c	142.86$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e9…fa9ebacked Yes	9c	111.56$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad0c…df3cbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	280	34.3%96 W · 184 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event