TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc17c…20ff

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
31
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst Tweets at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT267.7%2 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-90%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.01
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$2,120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,119.96
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$45.43
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$42
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$27
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$34
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$34
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$34
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$18.1
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$152.5
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+28.8%+$44.7
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$18.9
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+30%+$46.2
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$72
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$79.99
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$63
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$387Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$387
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$116.8
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$16.5
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$156
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$116
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$177
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,581Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$4,499.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,883Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+49.7%+$1,433.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
zkSync airdrop by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$14.39
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.