TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$386,022
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$299,932

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $386,022 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes4c81,529$3,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,302.5863414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes18c17,210$3,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,127.0256429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes2c14,824$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.631,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes15c8,138$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.9631621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes9c7,558$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.9311512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes4c6,331$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.9224815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x459c…7ebcbacked Yes31c6,076$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.892321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes1c5,946$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6419930.7%61 W · 138 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes8c5,591$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.5428016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No79c4,451$3,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.2428025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes19c3,947$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.5116427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No61c3,230$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.3220735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes35c3,124$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.9413511.9%16 W · 119 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes30c2,908$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.152,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dab…e581backed No69c2,859$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.3810036%36 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes7c2,850$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.2766222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes29c2,374$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.093036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes8c2,292$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.4833231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes16c2,061$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.1188017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes16c2,047$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.6488018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes18c2,030$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.8245511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2046521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes15c1,968$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.1157621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes11c1,906$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.1248819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes6c1,905$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2762412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1f6…db6fbacked Yes10c1,818$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.743318.2%6 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce1f…0669backed Yes1c1,779$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.154045%18 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked No74c1,720$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.3813844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes13c1,487$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.5346137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes5c1,482$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.949317.2%16 W · 77 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes21c1,454$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.9829227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes19c1,380$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.6428526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2b6…9ff5backed Yes37c1,351$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.528420.2%17 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c23…afe7backed Yes1c1,300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed Yes8c1,286$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.975014%7 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed No77c1,227$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.3438828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No66c1,225$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.8231565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes8c1,196$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.121,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes22c1,100$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.641288.6%11 W · 117 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51bf…01cbbacked Yes13c1,065$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.592714.8%4 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid+85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes20c1,053$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.282116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes16c1,051$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.820924.9%52 W · 157 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No68c1,006$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32463821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes7c1,004$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8431722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013116.8%22 W · 109 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+57.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes31c998.96$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.618822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No71c995$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.4326167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes10c898.9$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.541,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes16c886.15$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.114625.3%37 W · 109 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes14c871.42$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6314015.7%22 W · 118 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a6…e544backed No74c837.93$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.766167.2%41 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfe6…748fbacked No80c824.2$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.843461.8%21 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe0f…f988backed Yes22c819.91$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.384040%16 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0770…184bbacked No46c784.4$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.883943.6%17 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes27c750.28$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.1311729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes8c726.4$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1117723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes29c711.53$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.1678111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfe…5439backed Yes41c708.97$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.732330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7684…15c4backed Yes27c703.34$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.94025%10 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes27c687.54$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.4950913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes18c643.74$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.59627.1%26 W · 70 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes16c619.41$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1434215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e07…8178backed Yes47c617.36$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.161866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7166…9002backed No79c612.62$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1293748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes7c581.6$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5321215.1%32 W · 180 L+0.6wins0.00per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc10…13a0backed Yes34c575.38$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.513030%9 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes25c567.51$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5415435.1%54 W · 100 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes33c564.39$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.810013%13 W · 87 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes6c550$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.59426.6%25 W · 69 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes14c531.5$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.117728.2%50 W · 127 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe17f…9d41backed Yes39c500.61$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.24911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-76.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…d4febacked Yes31c500$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1535930.5%18 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa1…95b4backed Yes21c499.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1055920.3%12 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x653f…c386backed No78c493.15$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.496823.5%16 W · 52 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40b2…6fd2backed Yes19c490$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f2c…c480backed No78c489$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.581450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes19c487.34$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8926411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes21c483$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0450319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes35c482.01$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0918321.9%40 W · 143 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a3…df40backed Yes35c479.99$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.611624.1%28 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb5…f779backed Yes39c468.69$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8516532.7%54 W · 111 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes14c457$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.985418.5%10 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bc4…cc49backed Yes7c440.04$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.958046.3%37 W · 43 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc8c…dbefbacked Yes23c432.85$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.425626.8%15 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc47b…9843backed Yes39c428.61$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.164017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes16c422.31$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.459533.7%32 W · 63 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fcd…c5debacked Yes19c417.32$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.656325.4%16 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes10c405.16$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0610917.4%19 W · 90 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes11c404.38$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.638614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x266e…17e5backed Yes9c400$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210422.1%23 W · 81 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes36c398.09$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.417826.9%21 W · 57 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes6c396.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7857222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd933…6964backed Yes17c380.74$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1c…44b6backed Yes12c380$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6150%0 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d4a…c2a6backed Yes12c375.41$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.88875%6 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed No66c370.22$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.6327316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5f3…1fc1backed Yes34c359.36$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.546224.2%15 W · 47 L-0.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes53c359.24$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.6220129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c353.23$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.6126461.7%163 W · 101 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.