Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb09f9c062ee13bfd7a53e3e50e800ffcff6c16dbabf50afe2a26d7797aff6adb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $386,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $299,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $386,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 4c | 81,529$3,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,302.58 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 18c | 17,210$3,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,127.02 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 14,824$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.63 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 15c | 8,138$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.96 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 9c | 7,558$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.93 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 4c | 6,331$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.92 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459c…7ebcbacked Yes | 31c | 6,076$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.89 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 1c | 5,946$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 8c | 5,591$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.54 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 79c | 4,451$3,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.24 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 19c | 3,947$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.51 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 61c | 3,230$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.32 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 35c | 3,124$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.94 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 2,908$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.15 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed No | 69c | 2,859$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.38 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 7c | 2,850$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.27 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes | 29c | 2,374$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.09 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 8c | 2,292$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.48 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 16c | 2,061$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.11 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 16c | 2,047$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.64 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 18c | 2,030$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.82 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 15c | 1,968$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.11 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 11c | 1,906$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.12 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 6c | 1,905$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.27 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f6…db6fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,818$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.74 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…0669backed Yes | 1c | 1,779$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked No | 74c | 1,720$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.38 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 13c | 1,487$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.53 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes | 5c | 1,482$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 21c | 1,454$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.98 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,380$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.64 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b6…9ff5backed Yes | 37c | 1,351$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.52 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c23…afe7backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Yes | 8c | 1,286$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.97 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 77c | 1,227$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.34 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 1,225$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.82 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 8c | 1,196$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…71afbacked Yes | 22c | 1,100$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.64 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…01cbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,065$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.59 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,053$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.28 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 16c | 1,051$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.8 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 68c | 1,006$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 7c | 1,004$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 31c | 998.96$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.6 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 995$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.43 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 10c | 898.9$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 16c | 886.15$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 14c | 871.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.63 | 140 | 15.7%22 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…e544backed No | 74c | 837.93$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.76 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…748fbacked No | 80c | 824.2$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.84 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0f…f988backed Yes | 22c | 819.91$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.38 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked No | 46c | 784.4$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.88 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed Yes | 27c | 750.28$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.13 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 8c | 726.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 29c | 711.53$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.16 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…5439backed Yes | 41c | 708.97$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.73 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7684…15c4backed Yes | 27c | 703.34$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.9 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 27c | 687.54$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.49 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes | 18c | 643.74$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 16c | 619.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…8178backed Yes | 47c | 617.36$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.16 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…9002backed No | 79c | 612.62$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 7c | 581.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc10…13a0backed Yes | 34c | 575.38$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.51 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 25c | 567.51$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.54 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6a…7155backed Yes | 33c | 564.39$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.8 | 100 | 13%13 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes | 6c | 550$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 14c | 531.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…9d41backed Yes | 39c | 500.61$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…d4febacked Yes | 31c | 500$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…95b4backed Yes | 21c | 499.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x653f…c386backed No | 78c | 493.15$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b2…6fd2backed Yes | 19c | 490$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…c480backed No | 78c | 489$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 19c | 487.34$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 21c | 483$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 35c | 482.01$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.09 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed Yes | 35c | 479.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.6 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…f779backed Yes | 39c | 468.69$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.85 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes | 14c | 457$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc4…cc49backed Yes | 7c | 440.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8c…dbefbacked Yes | 23c | 432.85$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47b…9843backed Yes | 39c | 428.61$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.16 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 16c | 422.31$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…c5debacked Yes | 19c | 417.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 10c | 405.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 109 | 17.4%19 W · 90 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 11c | 404.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266e…17e5backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 104 | 22.1%23 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 36c | 398.09$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.41 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 6c | 396.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd933…6964backed Yes | 17c | 380.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1c…44b6backed Yes | 12c | 380$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…c2a6backed Yes | 12c | 375.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed No | 66c | 370.22$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.63 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f3…1fc1backed Yes | 34c | 359.36$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.54 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 53c | 359.24$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.62 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 353.23$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 264 | 61.7%163 W · 101 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.