Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1274e573332dfc7dc8403297823218dbae01f0aaeae70a7d06d24c3cf7dcec53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $339,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $262,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 3c | 49,484$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.57 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459c…7ebcbacked Yes | 4c | 21,957$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.9 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 6c | 14,925$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.23 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 0c | 14,389$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 1c | 14,000$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 1c | 12,269$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.27 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes | 4c | 10,954$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.89 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 0c | 8,501$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 5,558$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.29 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 6c | 5,159$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.25 | 140 | 15.7%22 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 7c | 4,422$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.06 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes | 4c | 4,038$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.33 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 5c | 3,396$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.25 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 3,027$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.02 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…71afbacked Yes | 4c | 3,020$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,923$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.71 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 2,634$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.41 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 2,151$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.85 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 5c | 2,091$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 2,072$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 1,761$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 5c | 1,723$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.17 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 2c | 1,639$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7684…15c4backed Yes | 7c | 1,606$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 6c | 1,476$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,309$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6a…7155backed Yes | 6c | 1,262$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 100 | 13%13 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 4c | 1,256$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,245$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.62 | 121 | 6.6%8 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 1,094$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…e581backed Yes | 5c | 1,062$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…7455backed Yes | 6c | 878.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…a200backed Yes | 4c | 703.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…4403backed Yes | 8c | 661.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6adb…1e01backed Yes | 2c | 609.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 7c | 599.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf2…73adbacked Yes | 7c | 560.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 6c | 534.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x669a…e265backed Yes | 4c | 508.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd933…6964backed Yes | 10c | 499.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 21c | 496.06$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c48…1b89backed Yes | 6c | 490.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 8c | 441.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 5c | 418.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111c…2401backed Yes | 6c | 415.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 20c | 408.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…01cbbacked Yes | 5c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 6c | 398.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 19c | 397.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…b296backed Yes | 7c | 373.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 360 | 18.9%68 W · 292 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes | 6c | 364.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 4c | 295.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfa…c8ccbacked Yes | 12c | 293.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…c5debacked Yes | 12c | 277.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 6c | 270.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…c89abacked Yes | 8c | 256.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 7c | 242.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 5c | 217.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe2…58babacked Yes | 7c | 208$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ee…9e92backed Yes | 8c | 193.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…5d81backed Yes | 7c | 155.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd022…2c64backed Yes | 7c | 153.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…2133backed Yes | 10c | 152.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61eb…6aa7backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5991…6340backed Yes | 7c | 149.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…3637backed Yes | 7c | 145.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…4737backed Yes | 7c | 144.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad3b…43d5backed Yes | 9c | 129.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed Yes | 10c | 114.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes | 17c | 101.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…4cc9backed Yes | 12c | 100.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 195 | 27.7%54 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.