TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$680,376
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$617,610

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $680,376 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xacbc…7cc3backed No0c32,119$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.5811512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0170…a17cbacked Yes62c24,810$15,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,352.82666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes18c13,795$2,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,330.6454122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes23c10,159$2,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,829.7645511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8907…d8e6backed No0c9,851$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8580%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked Yes24c9,189$2,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,982.1314332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked No0c9,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2126516.6%44 W · 221 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes17c8,959$1,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,432.2831621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes2c8,390$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,236.029923.2%23 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c4…6cb3backed No78c6,900$5,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,353.39728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-58.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes27c6,387$1,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,660.1757222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes11c6,191$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,492.451,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes13c6,047$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,279.8466222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes13c5,906$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,126.5217628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No73c5,521$4,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,055.0128025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes20c5,293$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,252.8253522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes72c5,143$3,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.7376821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf48…136dbacked No72c5,084$3,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,671.545326.4%14 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes13c4,705$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,081.514015.7%22 W · 118 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes1c4,619$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,589.1412429%36 W · 88 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+110.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x53e1…6a12backed Yes10c4,457$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,013.843928.2%11 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes12c4,450$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,914.811189.3%11 W · 107 L-0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes79c4,447$3,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.3628526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes19c4,384$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,567.4263821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes22c4,198$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,260.0127316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes74c4,029$2,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.5322023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes14c3,942$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,402.5621213.2%28 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes18c3,746$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,081.931,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No17c3,348$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.638320.5%17 W · 66 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes14c3,293$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,842.4913511.9%16 W · 119 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed Yes16c3,100$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,619.488425%21 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No41c3,086$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.4928723.7%68 W · 219 L-46.5wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed No77c3,031$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,320.2211729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes11c3,028$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,683.6346521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes18c3,000$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,46916427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes13c2,956$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,581.167337%27 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No3c2,695$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2915844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes49c2,538$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.8715128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes12c2,347$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,056.83875.7%5 W · 82 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-65.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes4c2,259$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,173.6712117.4%21 W · 100 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes7c2,145$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.4520129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes11c2,037$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,821.0636411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8405…cba8backed No76c1,994$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.945332.1%17 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes12c1,984$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,741.7717917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes14c1,898$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,641.4124815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes2c1,879$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,833.446097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes8c1,817$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.942,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No45c1,772$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.171546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes18c1,698$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.7731722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes10c1,671$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.6457621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c17…bae3backed No54c1,668$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.11666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-4.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes2c1,608$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,576.2735024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes16c1,606$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.875628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes10c1,594$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.2113116.8%22 W · 109 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+57.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e9c…9a07backed Yes23c1,592$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.995334%18 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes12c1,552$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,371.7188017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes19c1,511$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.7899619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes8c1,505$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.2817126.9%46 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes15c1,473$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,258.9846521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfb5…0d6abacked Yes7c1,388$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292.42250%11 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Yes45c1,379$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.841931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Yes15c1,343$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.555141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed No46c1,328$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.1423321%49 W · 184 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes8c1,300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.8979811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fb2…83b5backed Yes12c1,280$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.514422.7%10 W · 34 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes10c1,278$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.0988018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes5c1,265$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.76688.8%6 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes46c1,250$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.353036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes27c1,237$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.6833527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f0…c7a9backed Yes15c1,195$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.27728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+98.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes8c1,100$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.262412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes10c1,100$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.3741230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes13c1,089$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.9214923.5%35 W · 114 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49e9…35dabacked No1c1,054$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b4…b25cbacked No57c1,046$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.82475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+204.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes21c1,028$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.8210840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes12c1,026$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.7220735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes29c1,020$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.332613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes11c1,019$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.8817723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes2c1,000$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98528016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes15c998.79$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.7118822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes20c923.82$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.8314137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc8c…dbefbacked Yes28c920.11$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.185626.8%15 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes21c910.32$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.764920.4%10 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes14c899.99$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.9938811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb171…39eebacked Yes21c893.66$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.491118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-43.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes13c887.67$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.4178111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes20c885.82$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.99627.1%26 W · 70 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes12c847.09$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.8548819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed Yes24c844.91$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.629233.7%31 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes15c844.85$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.231288.6%11 W · 117 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a26…a03bbacked No1c841.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.14714.9%7 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bf0…133fbacked Yes20c827.82$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.944438.6%17 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes35c751.34$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.716817.3%29 W · 139 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96a7…9e8dbacked Yes4c750$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7202832.1%9 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+54.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e82…77acbacked Yes4c750$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.9515925.2%40 W · 119 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes11c718.31$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.85819.9%8 W · 73 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dab…e581backed Yes28c715.53$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.9210036%36 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No20c704.71$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6263414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes40c699.24$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.538633.7%29 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.