Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d6038cb7f059d2943519195a37272d6825a9cd97d1af90ce5840a3c929531e4

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $682,792
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $383,586

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $682,792 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb273…0c86backed Yes	0c	100,067$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	42,961$616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$616.24	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed7…e48bbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed Yes	1c	12,000$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	0c	9,330$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.99	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	9,012$761 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$760.96	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	7,432$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	6,685$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.61	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	5,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	5,308$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.1	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	5,052$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.27	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	10c	5,047$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.29	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	4,947$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.96	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	1c	4,529$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.93	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	4,228$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.53	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	1c	4,079$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.86	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	3,591$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.41	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	3,527$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b0…e7e9backed Yes	1c	3,333$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes	2c	3,209$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	4cpaid	+464.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	1c	3,152$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	9c	3,061$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.08	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	3,047$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.88	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes	4c	2,888$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.4	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa86d…b2dabacked Yes	4c	2,871$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.36	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	4cpaid	+425.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	3c	2,583$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.96	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	8c	2,530$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.99	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34ca…0437backed Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	9c	2,500$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.66	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	2,391$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.41	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94fe…eff9backed Yes	1c	2,298$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.31	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	1c	2,165$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.81	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4229…c131backed Yes	3c	2,039$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	3c	2,028$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.37	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	12c	2,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	9c	2,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	8c	2,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	1,996$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.97	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x881f…dfe9backed Yes	1c	1,991$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	7	0%0 W · 7 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes	1c	1,947$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.52	57	10.5%6 W · 51 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+114.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	1,936$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.6	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	1,903$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.93	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	4c	1,857$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	1c	1,841$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.43	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	9c	1,782$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.98	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	1,715$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.58	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	6c	1,585$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.54	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	8c	1,500$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.81	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	8c	1,500$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.04	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes	5c	1,481$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed Yes	4c	1,400$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+163.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	1,381$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.98	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2935…0809backed Yes	3c	1,230$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.56	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc394…0082backed Yes	10c	1,200$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-2.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfeec…93f9backed Yes	1c	1,154$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.94	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	3c	1,143$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.88	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	5c	1,100$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.2	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	4c	1,080$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.22	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	4c	1,026$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.02	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	4c	1,018$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes	14c	1,004$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.54	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc361…be8ebacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bfc…55bbbacked Yes	7c	1,000$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.97	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-67.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0dd…f987backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66d8…8258backed Yes	2c	999.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	+7.1wins	+0.13per pick	29cpaid	+68.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	7c	999.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	2c	999.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	11c	999.96$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	11c	997.01$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.67	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	10c	986.43$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes	3c	978.83$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.46	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4064…82c6backed Yes	1c	945.36$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	870$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.92	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	9c	785.71$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5e3…39adbacked Yes	13c	775.85$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+124.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	13c	753.64$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	7c	746.74$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.31	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb07a…4d19backed Yes	8c	734.11$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa72a…026dbacked Yes	9c	724.7$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.03	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	14c	719.99$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5d0…4a48backed Yes	3c	668.05$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	8c	630$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	7c	615.2$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	9c	600.03$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.5	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	93	21.5%20 W · 73 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	3c	574.98$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.47	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes	4c	564.81$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	341	27.3%93 W · 248 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	3c	544.68$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e15…8ea4backed Yes	13c	538.46$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	6c	520$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.4	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	509.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.61	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf32c…de99backed Yes	10c	502.28$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7217…a87cbacked Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	15cpaid	-82.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b50…1742backed Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes	13c	500$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.39	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa9…c8e8backed Yes	6c	500$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+89.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	2c	499.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event