Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x194c3e4cb9a244ae92e2adeff092076b13fe039cd217b1bbbb6aca6cd4d12df0

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,563,017
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,015,604

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,563,017 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5cde…50f6backed Yes	0c	120,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Yes	0c	119,735$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.71	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…e6febacked Yes	0c	60,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa009…a6efbacked Yes	0c	46,000$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f14…892abacked Yes	0c	34,988$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	30,332$1,227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,227.21	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87c0…71a0backed Yes	1c	26,183$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc65e…dfb3backed Yes	0c	24,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	21,009$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.5	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51c7…815dbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	0c	19,201$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.22	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	16,941$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.65	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	13,106$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.11	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcab…0012backed Yes	0c	11,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	2cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a4a…cb91backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc1b…df86backed Yes	0c	10,390$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.19	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.16per pick	4cpaid	+267.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe183…005dbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+2.1wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+133.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf6c0…a4fbbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.15per pick	24cpaid	-88.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb32…1e81backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	9,887$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.57	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb273…0c86backed Yes	1c	8,198$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.09	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	0c	7,666$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	6,649$661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$661.11	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	6,540$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.53	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	6c	6,318$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.38	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc93b…3090backed Yes	0c	5,793$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	5,412$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.66	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d2…9fcfbacked Yes	1c	5,386$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	5,249$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.07	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b0…e7e9backed Yes	4c	5,100$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.35	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e1…fbf4backed Yes	1c	5,081$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	0c	4,688$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.93	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes	5c	4,593$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.7	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	3c	4,299$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.81	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x951a…86bdbacked Yes	0c	4,004$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	3,953$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.61	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	4c	3,897$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.4	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a2…27edbacked Yes	0c	3,735$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.28	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	4c	3,599$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.99	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	3,594$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.32	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes	1c	3,500$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.02	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	5c	3,451$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.17	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	12c	3,443$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes	1c	3,200$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	341	27.3%93 W · 248 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	6c	3,146$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.97	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	3,114$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.14	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	3,097$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.31	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa9…c8e8backed Yes	2c	3,026$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.97	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+89.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	3c	2,995$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.72	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	2,930$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.05	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	1c	2,922$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	10c	2,592$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.41	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	2,538$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.95	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	13c	2,500$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	2,497$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4dae…18b4backed Yes	4c	2,427$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94fe…eff9backed Yes	2c	2,180$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.98	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	10c	2,014$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.71	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	9c	2,000$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.57	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	1,947$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.77	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes	8c	1,776$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	3c	1,581$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.22	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	8c	1,566$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.26	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4064…82c6backed Yes	3c	1,531$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	6c	1,518$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	8c	1,500$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.45	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	9c	1,443$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	6c	1,429$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.79	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	4c	1,397$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.64	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	2c	1,394$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.44	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes	8c	1,342$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.65	93	21.5%20 W · 73 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35b7…c701backed Yes	1c	1,333$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.38per pick	12cpaid	+121.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	8c	1,292$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	1,289$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.64	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes	10c	1,250$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.61	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcea0…bf6dbacked Yes	11c	1,200$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	2c	1,105$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.73	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0338…70cfbacked Yes	9c	1,101$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3841…cd5cbacked Yes	7c	1,090$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.19per pick	6cpaid	+314.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	8c	1,057$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.44	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	8c	1,014$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bfc…55bbbacked Yes	12c	1,000$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.46	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-67.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	11c	1,000$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.74	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	11c	1,000$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.17	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd302…0311backed Yes	2c	1,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.44	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ff…a17cbacked Yes	2c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-79.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	7c	1,000$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.07	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f17…d5acbacked Yes	7c	986.11$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	8c	983.54$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	8c	969.21$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.62	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	3c	957.77$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.84	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	3c	920.92$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecf6…9fcabacked Yes	1c	916.67$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	900$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	10c	870.25$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.91	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	10c	849.33$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.01	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5d0…4a48backed Yes	4c	843.53$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event