Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b392fc0a2674db229607218667c129a0ff27186ce4b303c3c8e54402fcab133

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 5, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,168,672
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $642,869

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,168,672 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	33,723$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.61	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	29,990$1,435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,435.08	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	26,085$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.58	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	18,106$1,782 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,782.34	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Yes	2c	15,875$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f14…892abacked Yes	2c	14,992$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	13,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	12,278$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.76	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	0c	11,009$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.94	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcab…0012backed Yes	0c	10,160$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	2cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	10,000$624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$623.74	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	11c	9,138$989 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$988.96	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…e6febacked Yes	0c	8,263$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	0c	7,500$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	7c	7,106$524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.38	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	6,698$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.46	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	0c	6,199$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.13	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	5,952$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.24	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb273…0c86backed Yes	2c	5,938$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	5,732$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.85	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5756…2a1bbacked Yes	1c	5,657$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	5,515$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.44	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06a1…3179backed Yes	1c	4,960$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	11c	4,648$491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.89	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	8c	4,617$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.12	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	13c	4,461$561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$561.09	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	4,380$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.11	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	7c	4,258$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.88	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a3…8046backed Yes	3c	4,164$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.44	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+817.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87c0…71a0backed Yes	4c	4,049$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	4,000$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	3,881$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.02	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb283…5605backed Yes	1c	3,727$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d19…0d91backed Yes	6c	3,669$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.44	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-70.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	3,655$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.69	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	3,367$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.48	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes	4c	3,303$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.61	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	10c	3,300$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.32	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32c1…0605backed Yes	3c	3,270$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.81	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	11c	3,197$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x250e…d1bbbacked Yes	1c	3,191$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+65.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes	3c	3,169$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.01	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	3,130$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.75	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	3,048$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.6	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	7c	3,004$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.14	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	10c	3,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	4c	2,958$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.27	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddf4…ad79backed Yes	1c	2,891$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	25cpaid	-81.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0049…3a9abacked Yes	1c	2,830$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.71	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	2,797$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.4	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes	7c	2,749$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.15	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc8…02b2backed Yes	14c	2,747$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.35	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	4c	2,600$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.41	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	14c	2,598$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.26	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes	1c	2,552$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	341	27.3%93 W · 248 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x96e9…e483backed Yes	0c	2,351$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.33per pick	17cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96a0…a2adbacked Yes	1c	2,307$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf56…ef59backed Yes	6c	2,251$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+85.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	10c	2,064$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.59	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	11c	2,031$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.72	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	12c	2,014$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	4c	2,013$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.02	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bfc…55bbbacked Yes	11c	2,000$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-67.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	13c	2,000$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	12c	1,890$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.06	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc42d…5287backed Yes	5c	1,835$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.44	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc698…b8d0backed Yes	1c	1,826$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,760$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.84	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x999e…d166backed Yes	12c	1,755$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.6	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	10cpaid	-81.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49e0…c8a4backed Yes	1c	1,676$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes	1c	1,609$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	57	10.5%6 W · 51 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+114.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	1,556$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.42	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	2c	1,519$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.62	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b0…e7e9backed Yes	8c	1,505$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.95	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	9c	1,500$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.01	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	15c	1,500$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.69	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes	9c	1,500$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes	13c	1,481$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.33	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49a…e985backed Yes	3c	1,474$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+367.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	4c	1,465$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c0…a4fbbacked Yes	1c	1,443$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.15per pick	24cpaid	-88.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	3c	1,403$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.35	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	1,378$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.53	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	8c	1,329$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.82	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	2c	1,309$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes	10c	1,287$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.65	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a1e…6f16backed Yes	1c	1,286$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes	12c	1,230$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.67	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	4c	1,200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.42	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	8c	1,194$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.86	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	6c	1,181$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.22	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	8c	1,180$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.06	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes	12c	1,157$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.82	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	14c	1,102$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes	13c	1,100$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.41	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	1,091$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.92	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	6c	1,057$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.34	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	5c	1,042$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event