Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3dc290c6b0e3a312529dd5a4c05dcba287ce57eed62258b0076b68daefa99eb

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,878,509
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,247,060

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,878,509 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 576 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x265f…a448backed Yes	3c	82,126$2,415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,414.62	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	1c	31,245$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.51	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	27,790$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.23	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	7c	23,150$1,626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,626.3	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	2c	19,799$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.29	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	9c	19,107$1,664 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,663.69	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	9c	18,482$1,730 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,729.59	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	16c	15,673$2,506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,505.77	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	1c	15,000$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	15c	14,700$2,174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,173.81	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa86d…b2dabacked Yes	1c	14,550$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.27	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	4cpaid	+425.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	2c	12,809$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.13	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	1c	11,874$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.53	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	9c	11,488$979 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$979.07	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	1c	11,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	3c	10,324$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.05	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	17c	9,664$1,633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,632.78	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	5c	9,526$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$473.66	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	15c	9,351$1,369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,368.59	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	15c	9,341$1,376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,376.04	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba2c…b5d1backed Yes	1c	9,313$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.55	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-55.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	11c	9,163$1,004 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,004.22	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Yes	4c	8,679$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.51	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed Yes	9c	8,649$812 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$812.02	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	7c	8,302$594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594.09	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	22c	8,253$1,825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,824.6	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	8,144$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.47	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	8c	7,891$618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$617.91	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	8c	7,555$596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595.79	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	8c	7,505$585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$584.75	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…54b3backed Yes	10c	7,475$740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$740	70	25.7%18 W · 52 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	18c	7,160$1,296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,295.97	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	14c	7,001$966 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$965.71	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	4c	6,706$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.42	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	15c	6,445$945 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$945.39	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	5c	6,366$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.98	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	6,248$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.21	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	19c	6,154$1,171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,170.59	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49a…e985backed Yes	3c	6,142$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+367.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes	2c	6,038$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.69	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	1c	5,894$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.15	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	5,851$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.94	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	16c	5,772$946 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$946.24	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	8c	5,604$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	8c	5,375$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.17	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc54d…8649backed Yes	0c	5,228$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	16c	5,143$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	3c	5,026$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e6…56a3backed Yes	26c	5,000$1,320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,319.87	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	14c	5,000$697 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$697	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02b6…8f5fbacked Yes	0c	4,959$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.68	105	42.9%45 W · 60 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	10c	4,877$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.37	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	20c	4,869$994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$994.18	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	1c	4,859$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.07	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	10c	4,795$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.4	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	6c	4,684$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.08	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes	4c	4,362$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.98	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	13c	4,226$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$557.17	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	23c	4,167$938 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$937.58	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe828…5ceabacked No	78c	4,167$3,229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$937.57	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+3.7wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	8c	4,140$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.52	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	4c	4,010$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.67	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	15c	3,521$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8cb1…50ffbacked Yes	2c	3,500$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.5	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	3,450$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2938…f251backed Yes	6c	3,442$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.25	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+2.1wins	+0.19per pick	8cpaid	+394%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e7…bb8cbacked Yes	21c	3,436$721 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	11c	3,422$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.56	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	10c	3,372$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	17c	3,313$569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.44	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	5c	3,178$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.66	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	16c	3,052$483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$482.9	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	11c	2,946$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.52	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	2,921$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.24	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	12c	2,881$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.69	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	16c	2,779$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.19	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d87…87d5backed Yes	1c	2,650$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.05	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Yes	13c	2,643$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.14	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-35%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	25c	2,623$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$649.88	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59b8…26b2backed Yes	19c	2,614$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…67a0backed Yes	24c	2,602$633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$633.43	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb273…0c86backed Yes	12c	2,567$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	2,535$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.29	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	6c	2,500$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.75	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	2,450$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.29	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	13c	2,436$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.65	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcab…0012backed Yes	1c	2,403$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.84	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	2cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5d0…4a48backed Yes	10c	2,384$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.09	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No	80c	2,253$1,794 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$458.78	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	2c	2,233$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceb3…108ebacked Yes	21c	2,203$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8327…66dfbacked Yes	2c	2,121$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.79	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.16per pick	41cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	4c	2,053$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.9	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes	15c	2,029$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	5c	2,020$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.6	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes	16c	2,000$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.03	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	7c	2,000$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event