TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8327…66df

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
32
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Tweets, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 56 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+134.3%+$59.11
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$75
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+181.7%+$98.14
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+39.7%+$39.66
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+395.8%+$506.59
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+26.6%+$53.16
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+201%+$286.41
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$34.79
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+76.4%+$195.08
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$869Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+26.5%+$230.27
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+59.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+102.2%+$153.31
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$71.64
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$51.79
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rio Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Thiago Agustin Tirantebacked Cerundolo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$403Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$403
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovicbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+51.5%+$66.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+26.6%+$26.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$102.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 6–10 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$80
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$44
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.