Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x662fbb2c1fc3e921cc0896cb802fb83792641e9b836feee50b55a8c4f2c60628

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,209,905
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $816,261

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,209,905 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 950 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	4c	79,128$2,798 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,797.56	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea48…20a5backed Yes	0c	25,464$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	14c	22,812$3,097 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,096.61	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	1c	20,879$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.19	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	34c	18,875$6,405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,405.07	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	18c	18,520$3,295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,295.46	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	20c	15,337$3,070 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,069.87	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	15c	13,203$2,046 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,045.94	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No	63c	12,881$8,089 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,791.34	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	5c	11,494$529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$528.88	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	11,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	23c	10,720$2,431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,431	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	19c	10,000$1,936 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,936.22	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes	3c	9,805$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.39	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	9,520$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.36	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	34c	9,233$3,132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,131.88	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	16c	8,322$1,361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,361.03	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes	5c	8,040$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.93	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	22c	7,630$1,686 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,685.69	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf374…ce1abacked Yes	12c	7,250$860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$860.49	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	15c	6,892$1,052 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,051.75	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	21c	6,891$1,466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,466.27	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	27c	6,786$1,830 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,830.26	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	24c	6,712$1,579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,579.38	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd259…e7f8backed Yes	0c	6,700$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	17c	6,391$1,113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,113.47	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	11c	6,143$681 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$681.16	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	37c	6,120$2,236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,235.62	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4058…4c04backed Yes	1c	5,824$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.42	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2379…178ebacked Yes	2c	5,600$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+4.6wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x294a…bbbabacked No	62c	5,370$3,330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,040.7	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+210.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	26c	5,340$1,380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,380.2	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd7f…c0cebacked Yes	2c	5,299$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.87	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	34c	5,193$1,787 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,786.98	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	6c	4,840$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.34	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	1c	4,420$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.74	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b8b…9eb6backed Yes	30c	4,414$1,304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,303.65	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	+43.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	13c	4,408$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580.14	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc77a…8546backed Yes	8c	4,252$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.83	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+3.4wins	+0.13per pick	10cpaid	+130.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	22c	4,123$887 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$886.96	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	3c	4,100$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43f1…06e5backed Yes	11c	4,097$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.16	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	76c	4,041$3,073 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$967.94	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	24c	4,000$950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$950	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	22c	4,000$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$899.99	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	21c	3,901$837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$836.57	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes	26c	3,887$1,009 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,009	97	28.9%28 W · 69 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c89…c8aabacked Yes	37c	3,840$1,416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,416.27	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7135…7467backed Yes	1c	3,673$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	21c	3,620$745 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$744.92	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	16c	3,573$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583.4	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	2c	3,529$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.57	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	6c	3,500$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.43	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf984…24cebacked Yes	18c	3,400$601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$601.01	73	20.5%15 W · 58 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	19c	3,388$654 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$653.77	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes	36c	3,360$1,199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,198.66	75	36%27 W · 48 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+11%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	3,300$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.17	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No	69c	3,267$2,260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,007.09	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	34c	3,235$1,088 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,088.41	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	30c	3,153$931 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$930.93	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed Yes	13c	3,048$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.74	97	16.5%16 W · 81 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	15c	3,000$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.16	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	62c	2,993$1,860 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,132.76	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	79c	2,992$2,351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$640.84	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed Yes	34c	2,961$1,001 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,001.43	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	23c	2,956$675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$675.07	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	26c	2,845$730 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$730	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes	7c	2,799$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.2	103	22.3%23 W · 80 L	+8.6wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+59.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x729a…92d8backed Yes	37c	2,671$988 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$988.31	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	3c	2,623$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.68	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	3c	2,524$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.46	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb13…2de9backed Yes	11c	2,519$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.34	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	+4.9wins	+0.14per pick	40cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	2,500$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.25	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba28…4da2backed Yes	13c	2,400$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+68.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc1…3e21backed Yes	2c	2,333$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.11	21	19%4 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.10per pick	9cpaid	+77.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	21c	2,333$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.94	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b59…7155backed Yes	4c	2,250$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.65	77	22.1%17 W · 60 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	14c	2,198$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.03	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	5c	2,144$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.63	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	3c	2,057$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.98	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	2c	2,010$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	18c	2,010$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.04	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	2,000$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	34c	2,000$685 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$685.38	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7243…0fa8backed Yes	28c	1,960$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$544.91	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	11c	1,941$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.98	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes	13c	1,940$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,913$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.42	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9eaa…3feabacked Yes	19c	1,749$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	16c	1,700$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf97c…5cbabacked Yes	11c	1,672$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.14	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+69.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes	8c	1,659$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.03	40	20%8 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes	26c	1,640$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.02	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a80…729cbacked Yes	5c	1,630$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.14	54	11.1%6 W · 48 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	+38%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x030a…aad9backed Yes	17c	1,600$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264	66	19.7%13 W · 53 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x649c…d368backed No	77c	1,600$1,226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$373.99	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40de…0e3abacked Yes	1c	1,597$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+76.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	38c	1,573$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe5…636cbacked Yes	13c	1,548$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	51	21.6%11 W · 40 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	8c	1,541$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.76	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event