TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$263,412
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,937

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $263,412 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes0c19,439$24 inLost-$24.121565.8%9 W · 147 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+58%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x220f…5476backed Yes0c12,060$12 inLost-$12.06425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+80.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd421…7266backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf984…24cebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$107320.5%15 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a3…df40backed Yes0c5,892$24 inLost-$24.3211624.1%28 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes0c4,369$18 inLost-$17.854806.9%33 W · 447 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c3,555$29 inLost-$29.237304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes1c3,307$30 inLost-$30.241,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c3,299$29 inLost-$29.131,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c2,840$13 inLost-$13.271,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes1c2,749$25 inLost-$25.3312411.3%14 W · 110 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-69.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43f1…06e5backed Yes2c2,708$60 inLost-$60.5229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes1c2,150$21 inLost-$20.53408.2%28 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes1c1,801$13 inLost-$12.611209.2%11 W · 109 L+0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes1c1,481$10 inLost-$10.241027.8%8 W · 94 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes1c1,453$15 inLost-$15.44969.4%9 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c1,418$10 inLost-$10.486915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c1,059$11 inLost-$112,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb5…a303backed Yes2c1,054$25 inLost-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2937…791cbacked Yes2c911.43$20 inLost-$20100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x761d…a7c2backed Yes2c765.13$18 inLost-$18.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9278…8a12backed Yes2c656.67$16 inLost-$15.524619.6%9 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.