Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbda55fe94b4f7c5cf092883373708c500e4160939452b974d22264383e2231d

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $405,143
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $144,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $405,143 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7902…170cbacked Yes	0c	26,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	79	0%0 W · 79 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2003…54c1backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	14,635$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.86	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	2c	12,264$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.21	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	11,663$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	9,707$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.4	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	1c	9,000$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	0c	7,926$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	40	0%0 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,861$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.29	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a95…5a09backed Yes	0c	4,690$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	4c	4,503$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.36	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	4,338$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.28	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	4,270$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.5	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5052…cf5cbacked Yes	0c	4,149$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.61	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	4,069$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.04	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	4,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	2c	3,872$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.76	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f8…e95bbacked Yes	3c	3,400$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-90.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,175$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.54	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	4c	2,982$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.6	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	0c	2,874$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.37	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	3c	2,348$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.56	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	2c	2,232$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	2,200$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.7	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes	6c	2,140$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.4	57	14%8 W · 49 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	2,103$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.42	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	2,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.45	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,927$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.52	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	1,719$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.11	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,701$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe98c…49bebacked Yes	4c	1,602$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.47	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+99.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	1,591$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.72	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	1c	1,550$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.61	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x378e…af0dbacked Yes	3c	1,335$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.04	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	4c	1,281$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.86	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	1,269$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.53	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7580…853dbacked Yes	1c	1,259$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	8cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	3c	1,181$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05f9…51afbacked Yes	2c	1,123$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa95b…6927backed Yes	9c	1,079$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	3c	1,046$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.06	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	2c	1,038$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.49	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43e0…a519backed Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d6…e6d7backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	68	5.9%4 W · 64 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-30%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed Yes	7c	999.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	1c	999.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	8c	999.96$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	6c	999.93$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x615d…171fbacked Yes	2c	959.09$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	948.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.66	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	941.58$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	4c	800$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.75	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbd…f10dbacked Yes	7c	799.98$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	62	12.9%8 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+63.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe578…9bc8backed Yes	9c	744.44$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	23cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes	2c	726.07$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	86	34.9%30 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	7c	700$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.64	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	2c	643.66$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	3c	588.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked Yes	6c	583.33$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+97.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	3c	550$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.71	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	7c	509.95$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.12	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed Yes	2c	500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	97	16.5%16 W · 81 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	8c	499.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7148…3a18backed Yes	10c	480.23$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	3c	435.42$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.01	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	3c	383.56$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.12	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes	3c	378.17$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes	7c	349$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	204	32.4%66 W · 138 L	-11.3wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdad5…6db9backed Yes	6c	340$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	7c	328.05$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.06	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x774d…5cdabacked Yes	4c	301.87$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	148	18.2%27 W · 121 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa5…a6b6backed Yes	10c	290.05$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0bf…df87backed Yes	5c	282.58$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac2…4c15backed Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.09per pick	14cpaid	+40.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7750…324dbacked Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	9c	225.62$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.31	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bbc…6d64backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a5…bb21backed Yes	5c	206.94$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d48…2e2abacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	56	8.9%5 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	+54.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac7b…b2ccbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	14cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	177	20.9%37 W · 140 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x818b…0606backed Yes	10c	140.62$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.06	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	5cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	130.24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.59	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8735…0a12backed Yes	12c	127.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77d4…70afbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd562…6912backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89a6…02cfbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9dc…8dabbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event