Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb800b7bf4946c723d94b10d159fa0ab8460b0ad1ec1d40eb8b7dd8179153093

Rebuilt 44 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 2, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,332,140
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $791,452

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,332,140 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	31,348$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.74	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	0c	21,290$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.17	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	20,176$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.61	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5052…cf5cbacked Yes	0c	19,073$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.32	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	18,671$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.33	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ad…5134backed Yes	0c	18,077$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	15,539$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.64	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a6…d67fbacked Yes	0c	13,758$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.16	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	16cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	13,694$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.69	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	13,657$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.66	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df9…71d8backed Yes	0c	13,301$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	0cpaid	+6,150%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d36…8f64backed Yes	2c	12,782$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	0c	11,936$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.94	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	10,854$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.41	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	2c	10,623$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.93	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cff…15d1backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ffc…1787backed Yes	1c	10,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+1.1wins	+0.09per pick	7cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb638…4fd1backed Yes	2c	9,521$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.26per pick	7cpaid	+108.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	1c	8,488$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.18	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13b4…0a52backed Yes	0c	8,375$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	2c	7,500$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.57	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	2c	7,345$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.02	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1583…e8b0backed Yes	0c	7,107$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.95	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x627f…f83abacked Yes	3c	7,021$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	34cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	6,784$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.56	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31e8…1c09backed Yes	2c	6,339$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34ba…4586backed Yes	3c	6,281$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.8	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	+3.2wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	3c	6,101$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.16	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	5,526$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.62	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	5,128$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.88	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71cd…9dafbacked Yes	0c	5,102$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.97	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	4,952$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	1c	4,946$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc647…c6e4backed Yes	3c	4,480$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-76.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	4,426$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.68	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x742e…d945backed Yes	1c	4,325$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	62	21%13 W · 49 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	1c	4,089$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.95	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	4c	4,077$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.63	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	3c	4,000$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.5	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	3,940$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.48	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	3,906$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.34	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	3,900$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.72	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	3,873$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	3,763$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.41	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes	0c	3,549$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0a2…7c5abacked Yes	1c	3,367$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+62.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9fc…4b70backed Yes	0c	3,246$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	1c	3,235$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.81	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	3c	3,188$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.26	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	1c	3,073$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	3,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	2,919$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.27	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	3c	2,829$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.1	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde26…0653backed Yes	0c	2,815$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	2,756$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.15	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	2c	2,607$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.34	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc00c…64bcbacked Yes	2c	2,545$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	2,307$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.58	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d67…4542backed Yes	1c	2,273$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	7c	2,221$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.74	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes	1c	2,181$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.81	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa67f…e81cbacked Yes	3c	2,139$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2937…791cbacked Yes	2c	2,061$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	9c	1,940$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.66	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes	3c	1,851$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.37	69	20.3%14 W · 55 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+207.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	1,829$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.15	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc27a…fda0backed Yes	1c	1,710$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes	1c	1,700$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	1,700$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.3	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	8c	1,681$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.31	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	3c	1,678$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.06	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes	15c	1,607$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.14	285	26.7%76 W · 209 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	2c	1,600$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.9	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes	1c	1,518$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	4.7%2 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	1,506$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.07	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6172…bb67backed Yes	2c	1,500$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6189…8f69backed Yes	10c	1,500$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.5	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda79…daecbacked Yes	1c	1,487$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	22cpaid	-76.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	6c	1,481$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.02	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	1c	1,441$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.97	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	1c	1,434$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9480…a200backed Yes	7c	1,409$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	59	28.8%17 W · 42 L	+4.0wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x030a…aad9backed Yes	2c	1,400$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.65	66	19.7%13 W · 53 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	4c	1,400$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.41	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf5…829cbacked Yes	2c	1,399$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.38	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes	1c	1,355$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	117	30.8%36 W · 81 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	4c	1,281$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b37…1ffdbacked Yes	2c	1,229$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	6cpaid	+75.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf97c…5cbabacked Yes	10c	1,200$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.61	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+69.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	1,200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	6c	1,127$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.94	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6bc…0648backed Yes	2c	1,116$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	2c	1,113$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.81	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9528…64bcbacked Yes	1c	1,104$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…01edbacked Yes	2c	1,064$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	5cpaid	+78.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	2c	1,050$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x220f…5476backed Yes	2c	1,031$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	5cpaid	+80.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed Yes	1c	1,028$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.19	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	2c	1,028$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes	2c	1,003$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event