Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ad3ec212678f9bedab35a3e69912383b101e9360813e3bf4d6d12fd7a8e071f

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 31, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $302,577
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $131,226

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $302,577 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	0c	17,134$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.89	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf6a3…df40backed Yes	0c	13,472$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.05	116	24.1%28 W · 88 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2680…b31ebacked Yes	0c	11,386$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.49	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd421…7266backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf984…24cebacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	73	20.5%15 W · 58 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	9,540$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.59	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a34…6c6cbacked Yes	1c	5,667$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	5,402$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.04	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa550…836fbacked Yes	0c	4,600$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.66	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	8cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	3,990$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.9	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	3,621$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.62	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	1c	3,402$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.62	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	3,328$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.48	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	3,255$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.76	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43f1…06e5backed Yes	3c	2,989$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.06	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	1c	2,959$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.77	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	2,736$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.94	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	2,700$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	1c	2,435$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.3	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	1c	2,010$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.08	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,995$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.63	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	2c	1,904$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.55	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,708$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.45	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf97c…5cbabacked Yes	1c	1,700$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.25	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+69.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	2c	1,468$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.43	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	2c	1,449$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	1c	1,301$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x95d2…1ecabacked Yes	1c	1,281$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	4cpaid	+166.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	1c	1,250$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.14	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb5…a303backed Yes	2c	1,147$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	3c	1,081$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.45	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9278…8a12backed Yes	2c	894.94$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.51	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8536…73acbacked Yes	2c	864.49$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.13	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	2c	850$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…abc3backed Yes	2c	734.47$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	64	6.3%4 W · 60 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2937…791cbacked Yes	3c	549.76$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.73	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e07…36a9backed Yes	2c	514.6$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	95	11.6%11 W · 84 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event