Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a947652039643c2213a0052acb12541d094dbf3e93b0be5cf4759e913bc86ff

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,154,749
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $788,939

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,154,749 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 657 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	77,959$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.96	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	33,283$1,714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,714.42	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	12c	29,533$3,406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,406.25	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	28,521$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.56	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	3c	23,892$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$642.27	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	20c	22,916$4,559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,559.18	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	20c	19,308$3,784 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,784.23	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9c0…4c66backed Yes	2c	11,039$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	9c	10,116$867 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$866.64	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	21c	10,002$2,065 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,064.61	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd2…32d5backed Yes	19c	8,884$1,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,700	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	8,465$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518.61	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	20c	8,263$1,617 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,617.05	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	16c	7,728$1,255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,254.93	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	20c	7,206$1,450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,450	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	17c	7,153$1,238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,237.86	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43f1…06e5backed Yes	13c	7,022$942 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$942.48	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	15c	6,382$954 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$953.8	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	6c	6,000$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x291e…800ebacked Yes	5c	5,977$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	17c	5,854$994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$993.98	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc77a…8546backed Yes	2c	5,497$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.94	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+3.4wins	+0.13per pick	10cpaid	+130.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	8c	5,340$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.96	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	8c	5,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes	1c	5,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	51	19.6%10 W · 41 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	5c	4,885$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.35	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	3c	4,831$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.7	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	18c	4,740$848 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$848.47	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	16c	4,390$699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.48	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	14c	4,388$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625.91	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc60…ffaabacked Yes	13c	4,373$566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$565.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	11c	4,000$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.91	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa876…2397backed Yes	1c	4,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	48	14.6%7 W · 41 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	4,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.5	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	8c	4,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	77c	3,956$3,055 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$901.11	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2185…99abbacked Yes	18c	3,719$668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$668.13	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	11c	3,500$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.67	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4222…cf8abacked Yes	1c	3,476$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.82	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	16c	3,351$551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550.68	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	4c	3,272$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.26	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	17c	3,262$566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$565.87	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	22c	3,235$712 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$712.42	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c3c…8f25backed Yes	17c	3,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	2c	3,000$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2278…2c4bbacked Yes	3c	2,976$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.96	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	5c	2,897$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.25	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9cb…84a1backed Yes	17c	2,873$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	2,859$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.51	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	2c	2,828$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.49	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	2c	2,805$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.53	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	19c	2,246$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.28	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44ee…505ebacked Yes	24c	2,245$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.07	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-36%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	10c	2,229$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd20…c958backed Yes	15c	2,136$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.12	82	19.5%16 W · 66 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,062$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.99	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	9c	2,057$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes	2c	2,030$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.55	58	25.9%15 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	25c	2,022$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495.32	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	11c	2,000$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.88	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	21c	2,000$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	22c	2,000$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	103	22.3%23 W · 80 L	+8.6wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+59.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb0f…71fbbacked Yes	25c	1,969$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$491.93	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb28…2160backed Yes	12c	1,963$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.52	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x475b…e152backed Yes	9c	1,900$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.33	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-34%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2152…717cbacked Yes	6c	1,897$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.81	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed Yes	4c	1,761$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.98	59	20.3%12 W · 47 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5350…df2abacked Yes	19c	1,750$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.97	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	6c	1,732$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.15	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	7c	1,729$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.46	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab7…7884backed Yes	13c	1,717$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	13c	1,711$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.85	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	20c	1,700$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	12c	1,695$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.68	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	16c	1,671$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.47	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5048…4b29backed Yes	18c	1,630$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.94	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecc7…01e0backed Yes	16c	1,614$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	15c	1,603$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.23	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	7c	1,600$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.8	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e7f…cb1dbacked Yes	1c	1,570$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.31	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes	11c	1,556$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.77	40	20%8 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	14c	1,545$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes	20c	1,518$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	86	34.9%30 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd85d…e660backed Yes	11c	1,511$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	8c	1,508$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.01	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes	20c	1,500$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	43	14%6 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	9c	1,498$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.26	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5052…cf5cbacked Yes	16c	1,480$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.63	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	8c	1,473$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…3e7cbacked Yes	22c	1,465$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.99	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-3.1wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x030a…aad9backed Yes	21c	1,442$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.15	66	19.7%13 W · 53 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26e2…1a63backed Yes	3c	1,418$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	11c	1,373$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.76	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	20c	1,360$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ee…6d4cbacked Yes	12c	1,349$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefe6…7c8fbacked Yes	15c	1,341$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes	18c	1,300$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231	116	18.1%21 W · 95 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57f8…330abacked Yes	11c	1,299$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.92	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event