Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa28e05babd791776a3052fc9e55ac4989c2f6460b54d299a8a1141135fd9251d

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $764,784
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $417,238

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $764,784 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes	0c	44,503$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.13	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1778…a03dbacked Yes	0c	39,148$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	31,441$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.81	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x627f…f83abacked Yes	1c	25,348$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	34cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31e8…1c09backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	19,035$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.03	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	13,940$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30dd…cbfdbacked Yes	0c	11,190$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.38	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-78.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c8…424fbacked Yes	0c	10,646$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3df9…71d8backed Yes	0c	10,031$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	0cpaid	+6,150%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	10,005$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.92	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf984…24cebacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	73	20.5%15 W · 58 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf5a…9861backed Yes	0c	9,288$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	0c	8,523$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.79	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	6,092$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	1c	6,001$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.62	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	5,224$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.18	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ba…4586backed Yes	0c	4,920$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	+3.2wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c8b…97efbacked Yes	0c	4,464$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	2c	4,308$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.73	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	2c	4,207$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.51	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	3c	4,138$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.18	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	4,062$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.54	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a3…df40backed Yes	1c	4,038$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.62	116	24.1%28 W · 88 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,663$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.72	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	3,131$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.19	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	3,024$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.46	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbfc…1798backed Yes	1c	2,846$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,630$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.36	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43f1…06e5backed Yes	4c	2,584$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.34	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	2c	2,250$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.5	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1717…e2adbacked Yes	0c	2,241$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	2,174$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.47	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	2c	2,146$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.02	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	2c	2,104$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.92	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2680…b31ebacked Yes	1c	2,079$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.68	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	4c	2,010$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.2	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6189…8f69backed Yes	4c	2,004$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.65	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…d099backed Yes	2c	1,873$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	1,574$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.15	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	4c	1,559$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.96	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	1,481$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.59	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	1,436$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,296$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf97c…5cbabacked Yes	4c	1,200$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.69	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+69.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	2c	1,182$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.35	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7608…2b7dbacked Yes	5c	1,000$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	5cpaid	+166.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18e1…101abacked Yes	1c	999.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	3c	981.95$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.66	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	958.63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.21	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…0821backed Yes	2c	958.28$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	3c	744.88$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.66	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd231…8c11backed Yes	4c	700$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.74	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+28%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	5c	672$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.94	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes	2c	655.42$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.06	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf22f…7714backed Yes	7c	628.51$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+79.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes	7c	610.81$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3121…967cbacked Yes	2c	563.67$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d81…9f3cbacked Yes	3c	525.42$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.91	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	8c	499.72$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.76	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	3c	474.31$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.17	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf512…e476backed Yes	2c	443.94$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	5c	410$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.45	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca5…e4e1backed Yes	5c	363.46$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9278…8a12backed Yes	5c	350.12$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d4…0e8bbacked Yes	5c	307.69$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	54	13%7 W · 47 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa975…b503backed Yes	7c	304.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-15%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	7c	299.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	294.47$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	5c	288.46$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	6c	280.34$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb525…e7c9backed Yes	9c	235.13$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+167.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe995…1e98backed Yes	4c	231.29$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+107.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	8c	190.72$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.26	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	7c	183.75$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.12	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6962…b3d0backed Yes	8c	166.8$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.91	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event