Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96f2aa9addac2caf37479ef69230f33a2f9ef2a35d2414e579fba31aacae3160

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 2, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $695,557
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $367,120

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $695,557 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	25,553$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.55	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b1…d1a2backed Yes	0c	19,750$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.5	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	18,483$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.74	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	16,193$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.05	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34ba…4586backed Yes	1c	14,118$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.74	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	+3.2wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	13,641$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1778…a03dbacked Yes	0c	12,992$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x627f…f83abacked Yes	1c	11,073$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	34cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bca…01edbacked Yes	0c	10,573$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	5cpaid	+78.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	7,717$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.63	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes	1c	7,532$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.54	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30dd…cbfdbacked Yes	0c	7,383$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.93	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-78.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	7,131$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.95	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	6,041$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.23	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	2c	6,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.26	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	5,779$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.37	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31e8…1c09backed Yes	0c	5,034$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb515…f345backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-81.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd767…5bc7backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	4,984$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.32	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	4,917$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.38	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	2c	4,690$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.32	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	2c	4,489$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.22	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	4,219$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	5c	4,084$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.22	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	2c	4,000$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	0c	3,400$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…8accbacked Yes	1c	3,320$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	12cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	3,175$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.86	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	2,899$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.66	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	2,519$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.07	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	3c	2,517$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.44	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	8c	2,500$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.72	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	3c	2,398$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.52	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd85d…e660backed Yes	1c	2,262$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.33	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	2,260$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.16	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	2,081$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.49	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ca8…18c7backed Yes	1c	2,047$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.18	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	6cpaid	+180.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa550…836fbacked Yes	1c	1,900$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.95	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	8cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6189…8f69backed Yes	8c	1,892$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.55	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	1c	1,836$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.29	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	2c	1,781$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.87	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	8c	1,718$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.23	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	1c	1,638$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.05	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	10c	1,481$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.14	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	1,334$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.82	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e11…2721backed Yes	1c	1,308$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.05	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	1,290$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.81	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	4c	1,286$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.85	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf97c…5cbabacked Yes	6c	1,200$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.39	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+69.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43f1…06e5backed Yes	5c	1,084$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.58	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e4…b89abacked Yes	2c	1,057$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	1,034$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.95	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes	10c	1,027$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.78	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b5…9f60backed Yes	2c	1,019$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	14cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18e1…101abacked Yes	2c	1,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	7c	929.21$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.64	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fe7…4362backed Yes	9c	900$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.3	90	15.6%14 W · 76 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	2c	899.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…0821backed Yes	2c	817.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	4c	809.19$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.14	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	3c	766.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.43	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	6c	704.61$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.4	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd231…8c11backed Yes	4c	700$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.88	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+28%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5966…4c9ebacked Yes	2c	687.29$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb259…184abacked Yes	6c	593.59$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.66	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x010c…6134backed Yes	5c	578.61$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.06	129	14.7%19 W · 110 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	3c	568.25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.49	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	4c	508.34$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.84	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	4c	503.44$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.01	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.29	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaad3…0bc9backed Yes	2c	471.48$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.6wins	+0.15per pick	13cpaid	+81.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x299c…7462backed Yes	2c	450$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes	10c	439.87$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51e3…24ffbacked Yes	5c	426.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	3c	425.73$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4222…43dabacked Yes	8c	421.73$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.11	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes	9c	420.16$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.12	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+2.5wins	+0.15per pick	9cpaid	+156.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	418.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5401…50a1backed Yes	5c	411.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b28…5b76backed Yes	10c	403.86$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad0a…7898backed Yes	6c	368.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.31	70	18.6%13 W · 57 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+104.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xccc5…041bbacked Yes	6c	334.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.54	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	+56%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcbb…fd36backed Yes	7c	290.84$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes	9c	269.58$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.28	285	26.7%76 W · 209 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9cc…7144backed Yes	4c	254.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd7f…c0cebacked Yes	8c	246.16$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	7c	241.97$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.79	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d4…0e8bbacked Yes	9c	234.66$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	54	13%7 W · 47 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c37…eee6backed Yes	9c	228.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb525…e7c9backed Yes	9c	226.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+167.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d81…9f3cbacked Yes	5c	219$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a01…ca6dbacked Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-31%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	8c	195.55$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.05	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7caa…08eabacked Yes	10c	182.82$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1419…6e6bbacked Yes	9c	167.28$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6267…d842backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	16cpaid	+80.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21cf…e8ccbacked Yes	11c	95.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event