Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d3dda51a282a32c949e0877c70146a175b4659106988328873131ce95a5d2e0

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $410,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $254,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $410,853 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7902…170cbacked Yes	0c	42,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	79	0%0 W · 79 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	1c	12,000$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.45	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	11,887$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.89	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	10,554$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.55	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	8,123$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.4	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	7,930$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.47	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	5,887$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.57	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x615d…171fbacked Yes	2c	5,643$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.93	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee4…9d92backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	3,975$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.32	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f8…e95bbacked Yes	3c	3,335$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.05	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-90.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe50a…2da4backed Yes	1c	3,311$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.12	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	5c	3,000$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.98	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	4c	2,855$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.91	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,792$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.71	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	2,727$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.54	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	2,724$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.91	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f23…d1b2backed Yes	0c	2,657$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.63	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked Yes	4c	2,404$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+97.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,388$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.88	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x378e…af0dbacked Yes	3c	2,308$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.23	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	1c	2,145$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	2,124$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.35	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	2,095$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.8	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	1c	1,944$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d15…e453backed Yes	2c	1,931$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	32	6.3%2 W · 30 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	2c	1,779$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.34	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0067…446fbacked Yes	1c	1,690$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	9.4%5 W · 48 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa67f…e81cbacked Yes	2c	1,610$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	4c	1,597$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.43	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,567$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	1,518$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,489$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.02	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa550…836fbacked Yes	1c	1,400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	8cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	2c	1,400$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.19	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed Yes	7c	1,400$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes	4c	1,400$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.6	57	14%8 W · 49 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	4c	1,297$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	1,242$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.6	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	1,043$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b1e…5989backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d6…e6d7backed Yes	3c	999.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	68	5.9%4 W · 64 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-30%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9b…f203backed Yes	4c	938.71$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.65	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+69.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	2c	919.23$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.31	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	835.68$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes	2c	785.03$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.25	58	5.2%3 W · 55 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	700$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdad5…6db9backed Yes	4c	611.44$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.86	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	3c	553.36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.52	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	2c	550$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.56	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	5c	509.97$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.14	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	5c	500$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed Yes	2c	499.97$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	97	16.5%16 W · 81 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d0…1af8backed Yes	4c	455$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	436.61$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.58	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	5c	400.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	3c	400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe19e…adbfbacked Yes	6c	399.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes	3c	323.1$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.28	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	5cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d1…e899backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x774d…5cdabacked Yes	4c	295.1$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	148	18.2%27 W · 121 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	5c	254.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d48…2e2abacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	56	8.9%5 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	+54.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89a6…02cfbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb797…dc58backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d9d…3950backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a41…a88cbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event