Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0af8d77003eac0e3e699051568da290d06c9be6ac478a949d0e75e81a1b58fd6

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $339,670
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $144,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,670 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7902…170cbacked Yes	0c	45,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	79	0%0 W · 79 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	22,220$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.22	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	18,553$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.55	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee4…9d92backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,210$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f8…e95bbacked Yes	2c	5,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-90.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7e…9c0bbacked Yes	2c	4,870$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	4,000$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	1c	3,834$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	3,661$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.99	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	3,500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.23	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	3,168$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.68	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdad5…6db9backed Yes	1c	2,366$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.88	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	1c	2,278$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.75	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	0c	2,074$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed Yes	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ca…7d8fbacked Yes	2c	2,000$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	1,949$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.76	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	1,893$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.01	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	3c	1,478$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.4	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,441$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.11	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	2c	1,394$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.33	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked Yes	3c	1,332$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.99	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+97.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	2c	1,272$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.81	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	1,250$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.25	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	3c	1,196$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,169$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.38	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	1,046$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.59	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	1,030$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d6…e6d7backed Yes	3c	999.92$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	68	5.9%4 W · 64 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-30%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed Yes	1c	848.47$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-91.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	3c	593.38$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.89	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	5c	510$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.11	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	3c	500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.74	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x748f…1799backed Yes	3c	404.32$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	8c	400$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd0f…5aabbacked Yes	3c	359.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe19e…adbfbacked Yes	5c	299.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x071f…8ac3backed Yes	3c	299.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89a6…02cfbacked Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a20…341cbacked Yes	6c	187.04$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event