Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x052435e7384d0f706f9751cfc1ceec63e5ad413fe0db59663b6ca20d42e46631

Rebuilt 24 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $432,823
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $204,999

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $432,823 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	32,219$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.22	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	11,023$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.16	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	10,544$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.4	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ecc…6931backed Yes	5c	9,858$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.88	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	9,476$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.92	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	2c	9,348$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.01	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	8,095$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.07	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	6c	7,574$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.1	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc940…02d2backed Yes	3c	7,210$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.48	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.18per pick	12cpaid	+274.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	7c	6,977$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.79	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	5c	6,316$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.99	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2003…54c1backed Yes	1c	5,923$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	9c	5,500$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.99	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	6c	5,220$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.75	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	0c	5,125$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	40	0%0 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	5,100$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.07	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	5,015$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.22	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x627f…f83abacked Yes	3c	4,982$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	34cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	4c	4,626$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.98	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	7c	4,620$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.48	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed Yes	10c	4,200$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.21	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	4,198$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.85	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes	1c	4,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	11cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	4c	4,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,689$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.75	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	2c	3,310$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.41	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	1c	3,235$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.94	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	3,200$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.18	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	9c	3,000$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	2,948$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.16	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	2,784$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.55	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	6c	2,500$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.62	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x378e…af0dbacked Yes	4c	2,308$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.77	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	7c	2,000$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.74	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	6c	2,000$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.19	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	43	14%6 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	5c	1,922$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.86	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	1,812$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.52	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1778…a03dbacked Yes	1c	1,753$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab7…7884backed Yes	9c	1,739$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	1,696$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.52	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	5c	1,624$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa67f…e81cbacked Yes	2c	1,552$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.49	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	7c	1,510$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.33	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x855b…fc7bbacked Yes	5c	1,475$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.89	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	21cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	4c	1,465$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.54	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes	5c	1,455$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.76	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	5c	1,431$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.39	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f8…e95bbacked Yes	7c	1,393$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.51	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-90.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3be0…69a8backed Yes	1c	1,319$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb515…f345backed Yes	1c	1,313$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-81.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	1,257$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.73	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes	2c	1,238$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.08	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	1,107$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.52	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes	2c	1,104$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.76	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0633…d517backed Yes	5c	1,097$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes	2c	1,019$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.29	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	4c	1,000$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes	2c	1,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+150.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	8c	999.97$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes	9c	999.96$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	57	14%8 W · 49 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	5c	987.2$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.36	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	5c	919.99$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.6	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	5c	914.07$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.74	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	2c	906.83$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.91	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	9c	900$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.51	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	7c	868.15$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4de7…a074backed Yes	3c	863.87$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	3c	806$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.79	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	9c	772.34$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.98	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	7c	751.56$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.2	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	7c	711.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9b…f203backed Yes	6c	692.86$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.71	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+69.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7148…52f9backed Yes	3c	676.16$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.67	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	7cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	4c	666.07$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.64	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a89…328dbacked Yes	5c	628.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	8c	626.46$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.38	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe98c…49bebacked Yes	6c	620.45$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.47	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+99.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	6c	618.2$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.73	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	4c	600.8$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	5c	599.65$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.98	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	5c	553.68$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.63	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	6c	549.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.11	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	548.47$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.02	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3cf…95e9backed Yes	4c	538.53$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.37	67	20.9%14 W · 53 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	6c	510$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.41	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7def…4ba1backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8177…be85backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27db…288dbacked Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7148…3a18backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed Yes	8c	499.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.81	97	16.5%16 W · 81 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	4c	490.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f1b…c2a3backed Yes	2c	451.55$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7580…853dbacked Yes	5c	447.29$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	8cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	3c	444.22$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.11	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11b2…9fdcbacked Yes	3c	418.1$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	5c	417.34$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.87	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd231…8c11backed Yes	7c	400$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+28%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event