Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x883ef0e695315eb3590e02fededf20fc5d44cc4abac197b0d8bed20e2d74588a

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $722,052
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $442,527

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $722,052 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 438 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	15c	41,094$6,219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,219.35	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	25,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	20,542$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.86	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	8c	16,652$1,292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,291.9	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	3c	11,241$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.87	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	14c	11,039$1,599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,598.66	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	0c	8,719$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.3	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	1c	8,100$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.8	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	11c	7,353$789 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$788.85	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	8c	7,181$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.38	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	19c	6,254$1,208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,208.25	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	9c	6,141$581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.4	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	15c	5,654$863 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$863.07	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	3c	5,340$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.58	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	24c	5,169$1,266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,266.32	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26e2…1a63backed Yes	2c	4,351$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5350…df2abacked Yes	17c	4,334$744 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$743.8	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	4,121$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.43	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5048…4b29backed Yes	18c	4,088$724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$724.16	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	14c	4,075$552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$552.31	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	19c	4,026$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750.17	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	9c	4,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes	10c	3,902$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.88	99	21.2%21 W · 78 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	4c	3,779$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	3,527$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.29	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	11c	3,500$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.29	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20fe…7968backed Yes	17c	3,500$602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602	88	19.3%17 W · 71 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,324$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.83	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	12c	3,235$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.09	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	6c	3,206$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.35	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	3,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1584…2bf3backed Yes	1c	2,910$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.09	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	14c	2,771$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	15c	2,735$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.21	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	2,658$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.08	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f35…bfeabacked Yes	1c	2,597$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes	10c	2,522$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.98	93	7.5%7 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,383$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.09	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a77…61bfbacked Yes	11c	2,346$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.78	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.27per pick	13cpaid	+309.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0cc…415bbacked Yes	17c	2,343$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b45…f017backed Yes	1c	2,339$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	6c	2,337$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.42	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4222…cf8abacked Yes	0c	2,245$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,190$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.47	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	16c	2,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	19c	2,000$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	14c	2,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x475b…e152backed Yes	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-34%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	29c	1,977$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd20…c958backed Yes	6c	1,870$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.33	82	19.5%16 W · 66 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bf2…15aebacked Yes	2c	1,838$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47d…14dfbacked Yes	2c	1,813$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	11c	1,750$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.91	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab7…7884backed Yes	14c	1,728$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	19c	1,700$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	1,700$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.88	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	1,674$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.59	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	3c	1,628$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.21	40	0%0 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827d…b1f0backed Yes	10c	1,558$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.47	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-48%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	9c	1,545$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	9c	1,523$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.44	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	9c	1,511$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.63	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes	20c	1,500$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.88	43	14%6 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2090…2246backed Yes	17c	1,499$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.83	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	12c	1,441$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.54	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	11c	1,397$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.86	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	3c	1,373$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.85	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	1,338$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.02	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	2c	1,313$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x362a…48aebacked Yes	13c	1,287$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.16	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	14c	1,276$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ad…f700backed Yes	8c	1,250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	19c	1,212$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.51	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6851…74ddbacked Yes	16c	1,200$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.5	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	1,200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe73…1c5fbacked Yes	20c	1,196$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	9c	1,192$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.34	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	11c	1,161$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.39	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c3c…8f25backed Yes	6c	1,089$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.17	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe72…cf52backed Yes	12c	1,084$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes	19c	1,052$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	18c	1,050$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.42	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	6c	1,038$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78cf…ec87backed Yes	12c	1,036$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18b2…24efbacked Yes	10c	1,034$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.84	156	19.2%30 W · 126 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	201	29.4%59 W · 142 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd82f…75ffbacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…177cbacked Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	+171.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f8…e95bbacked Yes	10c	999.98$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-90.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d93…455cbacked Yes	13c	999.98$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+2.6wins	+0.09per pick	8cpaid	+131.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	9c	996.37$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.88	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75b2…e7ecbacked Yes	12c	995.23$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	52	17.3%9 W · 43 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebed…e737backed Yes	21c	988.52$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.8	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-3.7wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc029…0533backed Yes	21c	970.59$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb28…2160backed Yes	12c	969.24$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.67	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	17c	953.22$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.65	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	11c	939.99$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.95	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event