Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb051bf499eb92b17b488ec9a80d6cb1f9eb8c12f1dd466f220a787aa95bf4d8c

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $486,844
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $254,997

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $486,844 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	25,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	4c	17,957$711 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$711.41	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	10,564$635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$634.7	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2dd…29a2backed Yes	0c	8,450$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	4c	8,080$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.89	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	9c	7,000$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$609.99	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	8c	6,100$481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480.52	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x002f…6a4ebacked Yes	7c	5,806$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.61	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-82.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	5c	5,571$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.66	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	5,114$449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$448.7	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	5c	5,098$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.28	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	5,011$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.86	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…33c6backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c62…1b6ebacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	5c	5,000$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0cc…415bbacked Yes	11c	4,550$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes	3c	4,525$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.13	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ecc…6931backed Yes	5c	4,461$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.04	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	4,444$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.05	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	4,145$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.34	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	1c	4,069$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	40	0%0 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	4c	4,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	3,788$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.04	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,618$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.33	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	9c	3,500$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.94	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	2c	3,235$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.73	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	6c	3,233$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.87	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes	2c	3,210$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.91	99	21.2%21 W · 78 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	4c	3,000$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	10c	2,971$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.76	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,801$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.81	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe11b…fcfdbacked Yes	1c	2,739$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	2,723$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.74	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	10c	2,436$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.76	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	2,331$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.05	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1778…a03dbacked Yes	2c	2,310$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x378e…af0dbacked Yes	6c	2,308$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.46	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	2,202$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.74	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,027$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes	2c	2,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	11cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	9c	2,000$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	7c	2,000$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab7…7884backed Yes	9c	1,885$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	1,853$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.59	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7268…0b00backed Yes	3c	1,790$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	4c	1,621$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.72	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	1,595$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.25	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	7c	1,523$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.4	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes	5c	1,522$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.09	43	14%6 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f8…e95bbacked Yes	7c	1,430$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.1	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-90.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	9c	1,409$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	10c	1,395$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.83	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes	8c	1,360$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.81	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	1,356$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.77	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	6c	1,350$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.87	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes	4c	1,278$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.27	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes	3c	1,204$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.24	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+150.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes	4c	1,116$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.72	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	4c	1,112$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.38	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	9c	1,106$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.43	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	5c	1,071$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	10c	1,066$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	3c	1,065$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.46	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes	10c	1,050$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	1,029$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.04	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	1,012$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.8	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	3c	1,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.76	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78cf…ec87backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4de7…a074backed Yes	5c	989.32$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	8c	984.87$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.42	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	1c	958.64$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80ad…f700backed Yes	10c	952.61$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3a5…a594backed Yes	10c	928.51$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.12	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+112.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d70…7302backed Yes	11c	927.15$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.9	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes	6c	900$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes	9c	877.37$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	6c	860$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.6	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb515…f345backed Yes	1c	807.88$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-81.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	3c	803.84$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	9c	800$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.6	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7148…52f9backed Yes	5c	800$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	7cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	8c	800$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.3	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	4c	799.97$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.8	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	12c	782.89$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.95	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd231…8c11backed Yes	7c	700$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.29	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+28%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes	5c	700$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.7	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes	7c	679.38$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.56	57	14%8 W · 49 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	3c	678.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.33	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aab…14f4backed Yes	8c	650.77$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	14cpaid	+70.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	8c	650$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.8	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3ac…e753backed Yes	5c	619.16$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.97	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6851…74ddbacked Yes	9c	600$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.3	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7def…4ba1backed Yes	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	7c	509.98$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.71	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27db…288dbacked Yes	8c	504.17$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44e4…f624backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x475b…e152backed Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-34%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8a3…2003backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event