Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38092c04ab31844a662a58d1a5ceeed57167f3b027d9e4a1acf1af1c5c3d4187

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $635,963
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $314,182

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $635,963 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 301 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	25,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	7c	20,308$1,388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,388.04	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	0c	20,200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	20,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.7	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	8c	17,154$1,344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,343.56	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	9c	8,876$796 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$796.38	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e4e…5ca0backed Yes	0c	8,793$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafc0…5c79backed Yes	0c	8,574$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	8,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	3c	7,494$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.02	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	10c	7,124$693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$692.63	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	14c	7,000$950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$949.99	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	4c	6,905$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.52	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	8c	6,452$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.29	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	4c	6,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	9c	5,573$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.84	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd15…33c6backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	15c	4,021$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.96	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	7c	4,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	4,000$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	3,954$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.86	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cc…415bbacked Yes	10c	3,878$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.09	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	3,821$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.69	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5350…df2abacked Yes	11c	3,700$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.54	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	4c	3,500$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.49	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	3,474$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.59	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	6c	3,346$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.46	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	4c	3,235$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.83	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	3,145$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.95	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	0c	3,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	8c	2,989$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.21	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	2,977$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.79	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf70…da47backed Yes	0c	2,950$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-72.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	2,873$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.81	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	2,784$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.14	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	2c	2,343$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.99	40	0%0 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	7c	2,237$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.39	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	5c	2,083$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.63	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe73…1c5fbacked Yes	15c	2,027$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,017$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.59	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd85d…e660backed Yes	1c	2,003$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	11c	2,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	13c	2,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes	5c	1,978$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.9	99	21.2%21 W · 78 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	17c	1,977$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	1,879$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.98	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc164…efb9backed Yes	11c	1,868$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	83	37.3%31 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab7…7884backed Yes	12c	1,726$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	7c	1,700$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.4	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	5c	1,647$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes	7c	1,616$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.68	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	13c	1,589$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	1,572$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.74	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	4c	1,534$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.64	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	1,511$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.09	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,509$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.74	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes	15c	1,500$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	43	14%6 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes	6c	1,440$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.4	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	12c	1,320$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.3	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes	15c	1,297$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes	14c	1,280$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.2	68	25%17 W · 51 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2090…2246backed Yes	13c	1,255$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	7c	1,254$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.65	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6851…74ddbacked Yes	13c	1,250$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.91	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes	4c	1,223$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.25	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57f8…330abacked Yes	11c	1,200$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2dc…e100backed Yes	15c	1,159$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.86	46	13%6 W · 40 L	-5.2wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	12c	1,141$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.03	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78cf…ec87backed Yes	11c	1,136$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…3e7cbacked Yes	14c	1,130$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.93	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-3.1wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5f8…e95bbacked Yes	9c	1,112$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.08	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-90.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	3c	1,103$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.67	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes	10c	1,100$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	40	20%8 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	9c	1,087$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes	5c	1,041$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.44	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	16c	1,034$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d70…7302backed Yes	10c	1,010$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6189…8f69backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	11cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe72…cf52backed Yes	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	1,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes	14c	999.98$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	201	29.4%59 W · 142 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	5c	999.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf312…b94dbacked Yes	7c	950$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.58	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	3c	936.46$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.18	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	3c	933.05$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes	3c	922.61$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.9	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+150.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf97c…5cbabacked Yes	15c	913.65$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.52	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+69.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee3b…657cbacked Yes	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	1c	873$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.09	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	12c	846.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.14	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	16c	844$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.04	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe87…83d6backed Yes	12c	835$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcced…0d1bbacked Yes	14c	833.52$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	12c	820$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.64	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	10c	800$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.86	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7148…52f9backed Yes	5c	800$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	7cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event