Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc68d22abb2dcd723739056197813650faeea66188c91f04c2c42e7a10f34201d

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $344,647
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $116,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $344,647 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7902…170cbacked Yes	0c	65,000$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	79	0%0 W · 79 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	22,816$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.82	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31e8…1c09backed Yes	0c	21,839$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.59	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	18,300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b9d…ead2backed Yes	1c	12,417$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.94	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	1c	9,425$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.71	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	5,272$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.55	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	4,510$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.31	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	1c	4,356$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.56	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	3,776$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.18	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	3,720$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.2	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	0c	3,299$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc51…eb97backed Yes	1c	2,882$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b60…9421backed Yes	0c	2,760$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	1c	2,500$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	2c	2,249$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.75	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b1e…5989backed Yes	2c	2,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ca…7d8fbacked Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	1,858$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.77	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,630$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.3	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,594$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.62	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	1,569$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.14	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes	1c	1,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+150.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,074$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.59	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes	2c	998.29$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.42	58	5.2%3 W · 55 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	2c	985.16$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.21	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dfa…9c89backed Yes	2c	949.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed Yes	2c	595.39$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.65	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-91.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	2c	573.72$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.99	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f48…4c9bbacked Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	83	14.5%12 W · 71 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	3c	406.86$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.21	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	3c	401.13$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.55	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9cc…7144backed Yes	3c	340.52$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a20…341cbacked Yes	6c	300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e6e…a9dbbacked Yes	5c	220$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event