TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5052…cf5c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
55
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST336.1%2 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-53.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$13.59
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$11.58
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$17.13
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$22.5
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$18.46
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$45.67
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$31.59
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$236.63
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+668.7%+$145.7
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$19.61
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$74.32
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10.28
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$27.34
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$229.49
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.84
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$13.17
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$44.14
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$26.07
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$10.91
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$36.72
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$17.19
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$23.11
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$31.58
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$23.94
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+100%+$64.83
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+100%+$29.36
Warriors vs. Mavericksbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$11.99
Hornets vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$27.7
Rockets vs. 76ersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$88.25
Nuggets vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$11.64
All 6 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45.49
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$682Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+40.4%+$275.42
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+270.4%+$61.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Islanders vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+108.3%+$93.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tennessee State Tigers vs. SIUE Cougars: O/U 143.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+82.4%+$161.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+80.5%+$199.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+25%+$10.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.