Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f0b36655c1fc649c82c6c9ee6702180a053afc82bd87ed25eedb14702a978ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,091,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,136,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,091,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 673 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 14c | 150,197$20,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,514.63 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 25c | 63,608$16,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,182.22 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 24c | 24,639$5,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,951.92 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…f7c6backed No | 77c | 19,845$15,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,532.41 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…bf7bbacked No | 80c | 17,722$14,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,546.74 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 61c | 16,716$10,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,553.16 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5357…a8f8backed Yes | 2c | 14,756$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.32 | 144 | 13.2%19 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 21c | 12,541$2,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,630.26 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 15c | 10,227$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,525.3 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…014ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742e…d945backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…69d8backed No | 63c | 10,000$6,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,699.98 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 23c | 9,722$2,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,193.66 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…4727backed Yes | 0c | 8,837$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa701…86a3backed Yes | 14c | 8,368$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.47 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 18c | 8,000$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.91 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 31c | 7,527$2,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332.38 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 7c | 7,314$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.64 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 28c | 7,282$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050.47 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 37c | 6,971$2,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,577.69 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 22c | 6,514$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.9 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 69c | 6,215$4,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,915.91 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…1bd8backed Yes | 0c | 6,127$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde58…0a9dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,028$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 22c | 5,982$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.66 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 25c | 5,620$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.29 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4a…0b5cbacked No | 80c | 5,305$4,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9176…512cbacked Yes | 12c | 5,301$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…3aa2backed Yes | 1c | 5,095$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 50c | 4,926$2,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,487.71 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ce…97a7backed Yes | 48c | 4,525$2,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,155.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 24c | 4,502$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.41 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked No | 75c | 4,487$3,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.3 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…5e45backed Yes | 0c | 4,194$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes | 48c | 4,124$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,964.51 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 23c | 4,059$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.97 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 43c | 4,000$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734.99 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfb…f088backed No | 64c | 3,841$2,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…7762backed No | 75c | 3,480$2,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.56 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes | 44c | 3,361$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b3…56eebacked No | 80c | 3,261$2,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 16c | 3,197$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.24 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 6c | 3,152$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.49 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked No | 74c | 3,086$2,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.59 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…233ebacked No | 68c | 2,773$1,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 21c | 2,750$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.88 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 8c | 2,713$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.26 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2d…e9bdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,643$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 5c | 2,600$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 27c | 2,490$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.26 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 46c | 2,451$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.28 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 48c | 2,388$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.32 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…d847backed No | 80c | 2,384$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.18 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 32c | 2,365$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.4 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd21…3c10backed Yes | 22c | 2,311$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.79 | 80 | 21.3%17 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…30d4backed Yes | 25c | 2,305$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.92 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…ec7cbacked Yes | 24c | 2,289$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.39 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 71c | 2,254$1,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.62 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 60c | 2,248$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.04 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…c654backed Yes | 23c | 2,100$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.46 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +148.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 68c | 2,092$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.83 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…6a71backed Yes | 35c | 2,087$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3b…43d5backed Yes | 19c | 2,085$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.07 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…1b9abacked No | 54c | 2,006$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.15 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…d002backed Yes | 52c | 1,935$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,887$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.51 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 79c | 1,817$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.32 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34bf…26e7backed Yes | 22c | 1,813$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.81 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…88f5backed Yes | 19c | 1,772$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 10c | 1,766$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.77 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked No | 59c | 1,746$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.63 | 186 | 31.7%59 W · 127 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac32…6e3bbacked No | 72c | 1,715$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.21 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…7968backed Yes | 28c | 1,700$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484 | 88 | 19.3%17 W · 71 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97a…5855backed Yes | 30c | 1,689$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +174.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 60c | 1,672$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.63 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…ac1abacked Yes | 22c | 1,668$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdf…a3c8backed Yes | 18c | 1,616$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 1,600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…8808backed Yes | 23c | 1,591$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 80c | 1,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…f169backed No | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 79c | 1,457$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.05 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4985…dce4backed Yes | 1c | 1,443$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…1e9fbacked No | 80c | 1,383$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.46 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 15c | 1,375$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 1,319$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.69 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,316$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.11 | 218 | 27.1%59 W · 159 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 9c | 1,305$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c68…878dbacked No | 78c | 1,301$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.77 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 3c | 1,290$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed No | 71c | 1,280$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.78 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…281bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,277$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 9c | 1,264$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.07 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,259$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.07 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…11bebacked No | 80c | 1,259$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,257$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.92 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…a7c0backed Yes | 30c | 1,211$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.94 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…7173backed No | 79c | 1,202$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.68 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.