Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41818f7b6ef0a7089bbb4902da2447ff015f2ce42b1b2a0561830873afd340e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $410,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $312,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $410,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 29,793$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.07 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes | 1c | 16,958$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.38 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,402$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.93 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 5c | 6,655$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.04 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ce…97a7backed Yes | 7c | 6,315$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 4c | 6,228$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.07 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 5c | 5,887$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.15 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 3c | 5,758$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…a7c0backed Yes | 1c | 5,733$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 5,483$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 1c | 4,998$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 2c | 3,229$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9f…b8cebacked Yes | 7c | 2,915$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 2,645$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.09 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,526$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.59 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,434$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.13 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 2c | 2,158$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes | 11c | 2,057$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…4094backed Yes | 6c | 2,037$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 307 | 14%43 W · 264 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 5c | 1,953$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…495abacked Yes | 6c | 1,832$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.22 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,658$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,628$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 2c | 1,590$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,562$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 4c | 1,524$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,423$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a2…7c5abacked Yes | 4c | 1,405$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb08d…0779backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 3c | 1,367$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 5c | 1,312$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,171$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b8…4550backed Yes | 5c | 1,130$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf997…28e5backed Yes | 5c | 1,122$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcf…8fd9backed Yes | 4c | 1,083$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 9c | 1,059$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…055ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,053$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 10c | 1,005$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 3c | 998.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 4c | 991.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…ec7cbacked Yes | 3c | 949.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a44…5616backed Yes | 6c | 926.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…5fc2backed Yes | 7c | 906.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 4c | 900.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe095…c2b1backed Yes | 1c | 872.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ba…4586backed Yes | 7c | 869.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf111…2a81backed Yes | 4c | 822.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 88 | 5.7%5 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…6411backed Yes | 4c | 791$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1936…a7efbacked Yes | 4c | 790.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 5c | 767.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…cab2backed Yes | 7c | 766.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a50…9216backed Yes | 7c | 763.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 5c | 761.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe266…03b5backed Yes | 5c | 747.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +158%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2937…791cbacked Yes | 3c | 740.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 720.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 10c | 699.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 4c | 697.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…30d4backed Yes | 5c | 684.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a28…1df7backed Yes | 6c | 681.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 180 | 24.4%44 W · 136 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 4c | 680.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…eeb2backed Yes | 5c | 673.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 133 | 13.5%18 W · 115 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaffa…4fb7backed Yes | 6c | 672.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…4677backed Yes | 6c | 651.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee9…c77ebacked Yes | 6c | 630.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 623.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes | 5c | 621.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 101 | 14.9%15 W · 86 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 4c | 608.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 4c | 599.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 579.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 11c | 573.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 4c | 526.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…b4f4backed Yes | 5c | 519.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1350…4c07backed Yes | 4c | 513.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce15…bf9dbacked Yes | 7c | 511.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149d…8d63backed Yes | 4c | 501.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…57b2backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 84 | 9.5%8 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +105%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 207 | 4.3%9 W · 198 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15a…9854backed Yes | 3c | 490.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 483.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864d…64afbacked Yes | 5c | 476.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 122 | 19.7%24 W · 98 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 2c | 471.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…6530backed Yes | 5c | 425.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +224.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f74…a2acbacked Yes | 3c | 415.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…5286backed Yes | 4c | 412.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 7c | 403.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…b296backed Yes | 6c | 402.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 360 | 18.9%68 W · 292 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe87…83d6backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…25b3backed Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbee9…78d0backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5357…a8f8backed Yes | 6c | 387.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 144 | 13.2%19 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…e133backed Yes | 3c | 379$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 4c | 375.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…6d5ebacked Yes | 8c | 359.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 11c | 348.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…f1c2backed Yes | 5c | 339.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…88f5backed Yes | 4c | 335.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.