Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6661a1e3f988ec799721702bf21932177db66eaf9775e8898252dc1b7b31e67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $565,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $461,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $565,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 0c | 14,015$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 11,915$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,691$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb08d…0779backed Yes | 1c | 11,273$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 0c | 9,005$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 0c | 8,804$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 207 | 4.3%9 W · 198 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 0c | 6,267$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…055ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,234$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c5…b901backed Yes | 1c | 5,021$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34bf…26e7backed Yes | 0c | 4,770$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 1c | 4,418$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b8…4550backed Yes | 0c | 4,291$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…495abacked Yes | 1c | 3,540$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…ba28backed Yes | 1c | 3,503$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 3,449$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 3c | 3,393$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 1c | 3,014$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…09c8backed Yes | 1c | 3,012$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…8a13backed Yes | 1c | 2,986$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…4ae1backed Yes | 1c | 2,384$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 2,110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…e19fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,918$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…5fc2backed Yes | 1c | 1,900$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b4…0a52backed Yes | 1c | 1,714$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,615$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,585$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffa…4fb7backed Yes | 1c | 1,574$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa704…b01ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,371$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c34…05cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…fc1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…c664backed Yes | 1c | 799.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb351…4e7bbacked Yes | 1c | 784.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…19eebacked Yes | 2c | 662.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 2c | 641.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…2f38backed Yes | 3c | 563.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.