Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6566b377e5784da0caecdd79e5e5c8812561be714911e01173f1936db9ca437c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $986,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $956,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $986,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 369 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 11c | 146,679$16,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,717.02 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 27c | 58,176$15,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,525.91 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152a…dcd0backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 9c | 33,279$2,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,989.71 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 12c | 25,772$2,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,975.12 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 10c | 17,172$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,691.52 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 0c | 15,139$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac4…387ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…b433backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 18c | 9,910$1,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,831.36 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 19c | 9,209$1,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,795.29 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 24c | 7,282$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.55 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 25c | 7,104$1,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,807.85 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…eeb2backed Yes | 11c | 5,767$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.06 | 133 | 13.5%18 W · 115 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 8c | 5,550$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.69 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6529backed Yes | 11c | 5,545$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.16 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 60c | 4,997$2,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,007.18 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 14c | 4,822$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.61 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 10c | 4,670$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.62 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes | 7c | 4,500$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.53 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 60c | 4,048$2,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628.4 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…ac1abacked Yes | 1c | 3,911$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 12c | 3,600$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.15 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 8c | 3,275$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.5 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 8c | 3,255$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.19 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 12c | 3,030$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.84 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…7968backed Yes | 7c | 2,836$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.51 | 88 | 19.3%17 W · 71 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,810$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.63 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa701…86a3backed Yes | 13c | 2,750$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.69 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34bf…26e7backed No | 77c | 2,740$2,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.28 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,700$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.6 | 95 | 8.4%8 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 18c | 2,642$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.87 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,606$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811e…265cbacked No | 78c | 2,490$1,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x965f…50debacked Yes | 2c | 2,488$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 20c | 2,455$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa0…3308backed No | 64c | 2,425$1,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be0…bee3backed Yes | 5c | 2,388$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5357…a8f8backed Yes | 15c | 2,141$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.04 | 144 | 13.2%19 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked No | 61c | 2,119$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.1 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 18c | 1,929$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 13c | 1,917$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.01 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed No | 70c | 1,895$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.87 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc168…5024backed Yes | 6c | 1,890$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.33 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…055ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,842$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 11c | 1,804$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.67 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 11c | 1,795$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.15 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e5…49babacked No | 72c | 1,789$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 1,787$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.37 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 14c | 1,609$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.92 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67dc…a482backed No | 61c | 1,526$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,511$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.41 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…0e27backed Yes | 49c | 1,466$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.54 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa901…d418backed Yes | 3c | 1,415$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3038…fdebbacked Yes | 8c | 1,394$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed No | 70c | 1,350$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.23 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b3…56eebacked Yes | 3c | 1,349$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…281bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,279$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…e031backed No | 66c | 1,276$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.11 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,257$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.46 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfb…f088backed No | 77c | 1,246$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1e…1dc1backed Yes | 1c | 1,243$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked No | 60c | 1,239$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.53 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd21…3c10backed Yes | 9c | 1,195$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.66 | 80 | 21.3%17 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…6a71backed Yes | 17c | 1,128$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…a7c0backed Yes | 9c | 1,124$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 77c | 1,098$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.68 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…c654backed Yes | 1c | 1,074$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +148.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…f8d6backed Yes | 19c | 1,043$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…b14bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,031$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.16 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,012$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 8c | 999.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 19c | 999.98$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.3 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 17c | 999.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed Yes | 10c | 999.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…57b2backed Yes | 2c | 999.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 9.5%8 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +105%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 11c | 999.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes | 3c | 999.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 9c | 998.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0dd…19eabacked No | 66c | 966.33$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.04 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed Yes | 21c | 932.97$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 16c | 907.4$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.56 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 19c | 892.94$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.71 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 871.29$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.19 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked No | 49c | 837.16$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.96 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…30d4backed Yes | 29c | 824.11$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 12c | 819.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 15c | 810.28$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.94 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…44e4backed Yes | 8c | 808.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5b…1ab3backed Yes | 38c | 800$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…fe32backed No | 62c | 800$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…40f6backed Yes | 11c | 799.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 799.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77a…8546backed Yes | 8c | 736.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 3c | 711.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2364…d963backed No | 75c | 709.98$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.44 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 9c | 707.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.