Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13382fc834bb2ae4dd4c5cd5d0ffaf846c3461e1d5fbcecf52120267df27f74b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,553,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,763,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,553,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 754 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 25c | 345,434$86,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258,595.72 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 18c | 135,333$24,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110,675.19 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed No | 20c | 52,119$10,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,423.53 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 18c | 30,317$5,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,741.82 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 68c | 28,389$19,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,063.89 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed No | 1c | 20,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 48c | 11,978$5,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,195.65 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…b810backed Yes | 39c | 9,702$3,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,936.42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 26c | 9,449$2,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,951.44 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 64c | 8,107$5,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,905.65 | 78 | 15.4%12 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 40c | 7,282$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,342.25 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 76c | 6,813$5,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,609.34 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 62c | 6,075$3,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300.48 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 32c | 6,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,080 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 27c | 5,943$1,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,316.08 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed No | 2c | 5,714$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 47c | 5,598$2,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,967.83 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 46c | 5,264$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,864.06 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 41c | 5,244$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,094.39 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34bf…26e7backed Yes | 21c | 5,156$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,052.31 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 36c | 4,647$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,978.24 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes | 74c | 4,544$3,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.33 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 49c | 4,448$2,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,276.12 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6529backed Yes | 61c | 4,430$2,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,742.07 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 50c | 4,217$2,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.85 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…281bbacked Yes | 71c | 4,173$2,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.04 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes | 32c | 4,120$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,801.6 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 24c | 3,974$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,017.08 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 38c | 3,655$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.86 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…88f5backed Yes | 57c | 3,178$1,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.6 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 77c | 3,169$2,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.97 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…a9d5backed Yes | 33c | 3,061$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,065.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes | 38c | 3,037$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.47 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 0c | 2,944$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 31c | 2,938$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.35 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 74c | 2,897$2,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.79 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 58c | 2,876$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.92 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 21c | 2,780$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,199.97 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 45c | 2,740$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.1 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…5d81backed Yes | 70c | 2,694$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.99 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…f202backed Yes | 62c | 2,669$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.72 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Yes | 50c | 2,573$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.05 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…9eb6backed Yes | 51c | 2,500$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.02 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 31c | 2,500$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.96 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 39c | 2,500$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 34c | 2,439$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.17 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…055ebacked Yes | 31c | 2,429$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.95 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 33c | 2,394$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.05 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…ec7cbacked Yes | 31c | 2,347$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,609.33 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…30d4backed Yes | 51c | 2,290$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.2 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 61c | 2,283$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.23 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 43c | 2,148$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.72 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 55c | 2,124$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.75 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 65c | 2,085$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.99 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 42c | 2,040$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.34 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 68c | 1,986$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.15 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 34c | 1,953$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.75 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 31c | 1,912$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.31 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes | 32c | 1,906$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.62 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…a88cbacked Yes | 65c | 1,789$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.96 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,753$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.62 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 42c | 1,750$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.39 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 78c | 1,650$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.05 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4224…6babbacked Yes | 80c | 1,650$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.47 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 1,630$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.96 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…8808backed Yes | 62c | 1,619$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.45 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742e…d945backed Yes | 58c | 1,536$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.73 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb97a…5855backed Yes | 67c | 1,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +174.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f14…905dbacked Yes | 60c | 1,496$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.19 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…d002backed Yes | 68c | 1,464$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.65 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c68…878dbacked Yes | 72c | 1,454$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.97 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 11c | 1,454$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes | 56c | 1,453$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.5 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…7968backed Yes | 57c | 1,414$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.3 | 88 | 19.3%17 W · 71 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc4…c01ebacked No | 53c | 1,400$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…751ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,400$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7e87backed Yes | 47c | 1,368$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.52 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 59c | 1,353$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.51 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 60c | 1,345$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.28 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked Yes | 46c | 1,336$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.27 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 1,332$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…8902backed Yes | 55c | 1,324$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,252$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.77 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 44c | 1,250$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.72 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,232$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.18 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 1,227$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.19 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5357…a8f8backed Yes | 19c | 1,209$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.7 | 144 | 13.2%19 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 33c | 1,200$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.67 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 47c | 1,151$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.47 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 26c | 1,143$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.89 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 18c | 1,133$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.93 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a44…5616backed Yes | 38c | 1,126$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes | 59c | 1,100$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.59 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…d63bbacked Yes | 63c | 1,068$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.37 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…3c35backed Yes | 39c | 1,040$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.2 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdf…a3c8backed Yes | 41c | 1,033$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…6a71backed Yes | 48c | 1,030$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.14 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf328…2b78backed Yes | 70c | 1,013$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.77 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…f8d6backed Yes | 50c | 1,009$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.75 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 24c | 1,006$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.66 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.