TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$583,045
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$516,475

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $583,045 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x689a…779ebacked Yes1c66,389$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.642259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes3c58,545$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.6429331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes2c54,027$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.051,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed Yes1c10,543$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.071450%7 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes3c9,896$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.6524115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes3c9,127$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.311238.1%10 W · 113 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-79.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes3c8,434$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.851,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes3c7,282$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.9810715.9%17 W · 90 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes1c6,910$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.95958.4%8 W · 87 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c6,601$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.692,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes3c6,210$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.662359.4%22 W · 213 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes1c6,000$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573423.5%12 W · 330 L+1.4wins0.00per pick3cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes4c4,815$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.1934215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes5c4,629$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.391,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes1c4,495$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7413313.5%18 W · 115 L+0.4wins0.00per pick13cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6c5…0d72backed Yes1c3,772$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8be0…bee3backed Yes1c3,661$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c3,496$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.321,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes1c3,169$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.637116.9%12 W · 59 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf336…0bc7backed Yes1c3,078$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes2c2,876$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0559225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99b3…56eebacked Yes1c2,672$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-87.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde58…0a9dbacked Yes1c2,597$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick8cpaid-51.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes4c2,377$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3530714%43 W · 264 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes4c2,365$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.383408.2%28 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes1c1,853$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8741230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37bc…ae0ebacked Yes1c1,850$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.980%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes2c1,807$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4814413.2%19 W · 125 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes10c1,700$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1685628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes1c1,698$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5379811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes6c1,691$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1456429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c1,645$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.771,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c1,636$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.894345.1%22 W · 412 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes1c1,246$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1038811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c9f…b8cebacked Yes9c1,141$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002015%3 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+81.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100608.3%5 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick9cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes3c899.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2488018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0856…44e4backed Yes2c843.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.821020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes2c825.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4712714.2%18 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick14cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes2c801.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.21749.5%7 W · 67 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes2c800$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.420226.7%54 W · 148 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x977b…40f6backed Yes3c800$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.056423.4%15 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9278…8a12backed Yes5c769.83$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414619.6%9 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes5c734.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7462539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6fd2…32d5backed Yes10c700$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c699.26$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.076915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes6c689.57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.685614.3%8 W · 48 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+45.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee35…6c20backed Yes2c672.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137821.8%17 W · 61 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes3c667.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.735427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa704…b01ebacked Yes7c587.54$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-65.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes6c525.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.21969.4%9 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes5c520.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5636018.6%67 W · 293 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes4c515.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.042,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes7c500.49$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.26449.1%4 W · 40 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0115…db43backed Yes4c495.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-32.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes10c493.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.978811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb379…3a8cbacked Yes5c489.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.95742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick16cpaid+583.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c98…6f55backed Yes6c480$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.822824.1%55 W · 173 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes8c439.94$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.235212.8%45 W · 307 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3db…e662backed Yes5c422.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes4c373$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510818.5%20 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes6c336.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.45468.7%4 W · 42 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69b8…4550backed Yes9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-83.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes5c314.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7888017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fa0…3308backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56fb…d610backed Yes14c299.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425817.2%10 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+41%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x774d…5cdabacked Yes7c299.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2114818.2%27 W · 121 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f40…f202backed Yes7c286.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.962227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+69.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4015017.3%26 W · 124 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes5c248.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3550319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes5c237.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7638828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1720…2e74backed Yes5c219.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.434025%10 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes8c201$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.634127.3%93 W · 248 L+1.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d1ebacked Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1621233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60e8…4001backed Yes11c186.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78a7…7a6cbacked Yes11c178.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee3b…657cbacked Yes9c160$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41625%4 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96ea…ecb2backed Yes9c159.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xada0…44a4backed Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick18cpaid+118.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ad3…8a20backed Yes18c101.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes13c99.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1340016.8%67 W · 333 L-0.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.