Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27209c2788d64d490899e2149dd395d3578ed42cec4c96d56c0e58d0b3a54746
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $583,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $516,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $583,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 1c | 66,389$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.64 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 3c | 58,545$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.64 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 54,027$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.05 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 1c | 10,543$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.07 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 3c | 9,896$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.65 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 3c | 9,127$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.31 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 8,434$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.85 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 3c | 7,282$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.98 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,910$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 95 | 8.4%8 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,601$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 3c | 6,210$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.66 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 342 | 3.5%12 W · 330 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 4c | 4,815$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.19 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 5c | 4,629$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.39 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…eeb2backed Yes | 1c | 4,495$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 133 | 13.5%18 W · 115 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Yes | 1c | 3,772$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be0…bee3backed Yes | 1c | 3,661$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,496$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 1c | 3,169$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…0bc7backed Yes | 1c | 3,078$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,876$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99b3…56eebacked Yes | 1c | 2,672$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde58…0a9dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,597$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…4094backed Yes | 4c | 2,377$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 307 | 14%43 W · 264 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 4c | 2,365$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 1c | 1,853$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bc…ae0ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,850$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5357…a8f8backed Yes | 2c | 1,807$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 144 | 13.2%19 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 10c | 1,700$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 1,698$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,691$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.14 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 1,645$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.77 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,636$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 1,246$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9f…b8cebacked Yes | 9c | 1,141$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…b14bbacked Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 3c | 899.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…44e4backed Yes | 2c | 843.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…085abacked Yes | 2c | 825.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 127 | 14.2%18 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 2c | 801.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 2c | 800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…40f6backed Yes | 3c | 800$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9278…8a12backed Yes | 5c | 769.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 5c | 734.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd2…32d5backed Yes | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 699.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 6c | 689.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…6c20backed Yes | 2c | 672.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes | 3c | 667.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa704…b01ebacked Yes | 7c | 587.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 6c | 525.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 5c | 520.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 515.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 7c | 500.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…db43backed Yes | 4c | 495.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 493.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb379…3a8cbacked Yes | 5c | 489.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 16cpaid | +583.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 6c | 480$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9f…9971backed Yes | 8c | 439.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 352 | 12.8%45 W · 307 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3db…e662backed Yes | 5c | 422.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 4c | 373$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 6c | 336.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b8…4550backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 5c | 314.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa0…3308backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…f202backed Yes | 7c | 286.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 248.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 5c | 237.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…2e74backed Yes | 5c | 219.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…da97backed Yes | 8c | 201$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 341 | 27.3%93 W · 248 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d1ebacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…4001backed Yes | 11c | 186.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a7…7a6cbacked Yes | 11c | 178.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ea…ecb2backed Yes | 9c | 159.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada0…44a4backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad3…8a20backed Yes | 18c | 101.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 400 | 16.8%67 W · 333 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.